COVID and the housing market | Page 365 | GTAMotorcycle.com

COVID and the housing market

Dresden said:
Some other thoughts:
Early Millennials looking for their first homes were up against broke 35-45 year old gen-xers in 2008-2012 who’s investments were reeling from the 2008 fiasco. Gen Z is going to have a WILD TIME competing against late-to-the-game millennials who are well invested and have significantly higher incomes over 200k+ together.
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Early millenial here - this hit close to me. Looking to buy in GTA, and with cash, it's looking not nearly as bad as a year ago.


woot said:
I read today that CMHC is expecting prices to continue to increase due to the planned extra 1 million people over the next 2 years. No sense in waiting I figure. Going to set up a bank appointment.

What everyone's thoughts on this place?

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Reason why it's only $1 million is because the area isn't the best. There are quite a few detached for $1 million around Rogers road/Dufferin. Also for reasons @crankcall mentioned.
 
Looks like a decent place. 80% complete usually means you have to finish the rest. Probably $200K to finish 4 kitchens, 7 bathrooms, 3500sq' flooring, electrical fixtures, doors & locks, HVAC, landscaping as you'll have to deal with parking.

If you could buy it finished for $1.2M it would be a solid deal. You'd need about $270K cash for a $240K down payment + $30K to cover closing costs. It's advisable to have cash = to 2 months rent available quickly, either cash or LOC.

In that area I'd expect $10K a month in rental income with about $7500 in expenses.
 
Jay Alexander said:
Okay looked at the house, and I realized I fully skipped the details. Definitely a bidding war. That's a huge place for $1 million. Hate when sellers do this.
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Maybe not -- it appears to be an as-is deal, an 80% finished house is hard and expensive to finance. If you can finance, you carry a partially done house at $8K/mo until finished, and toss in $200K+ for finishing work.

That's a cool hood, but the location and lack of parking will limit rents to about $10K, so there's no bougie premium on that palace.
 
crankcall said:
It appears too reasonable, and that last 20% to finish the Reno’s is why someone else wants out . If you could do it with your own trades and financing , great , but I think there’s a reason it’s on the market.


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Agree.

Definitely figure out status of permits. 80% complete but no sign off on permits means you need to gut again.
 
Mad Mike said:
Looks like a decent place. 80% complete usually means you have to finish the rest. Probably $200K to finish 4 kitchens, 7 bathrooms, 3500sq' flooring, electrical fixtures, doors & locks, HVAC, landscaping as you'll have to deal with parking.

If you could buy it finished for $1.2M it would be a solid deal. You'd need about $270K cash for a $240K down payment + $30K to cover closing costs. It's advisable to have cash = to 2 months rent available quickly, either cash or LOC.

In that area I'd expect $10K a month in rental income with about $7500 in expenses.
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I like your response better so I'll go with it. The competition might not be as tight considering not everyone wants to buy a rental house that can't yet be rented out.
 
woot said:
I read today that CMHC is expecting prices to continue to increase due to the planned extra 1 million people over the next 2 years. No sense in waiting I figure. Going to set up a bank appointment.

What everyone's thoughts on this place?

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The brick work in the listing picture tells me a third floor was added.... a quick google maps check confirms:

July 2023:
1712323879364.png

October 2021:
1712323944403.png

It could be a sweet deal that someone just ran out of money or momentum to finish or it could be a nightmare of poorly done major renos. For sure get a list of permits and inspections and what is outstanding...were all trades paid, etc.. Others here will know better but banks may have issues with it (no working bathrooms, kitchens, reno state, is it now commercial, etc.)?

There is likely a lot of expensive stuff to finish it but that can depend on what materials come with it and DIY vs trades.

Property taxes listed are pre reno, I expect they will double, maybe triple at some point.
 
backmarkerducati said:
The brick work in the listing picture tells me a third floor was added.... a quick google maps check confirms:

July 2023:
View attachment 66989

October 2021:
View attachment 66990

It could be a sweet deal that someone just ran out of money or momentum to finish or it could be a nightmare of poorly done major renos. For sure get a list of permits and inspections and what is outstanding...were all trades paid, etc.. Others here will know better but banks may have issues with it (no working bathrooms, kitchens, reno state, is it now commercial, etc.)?

There is likely a lot of expensive stuff to finish it but that can depend on what materials come with it and DIY vs trades.

Property taxes listed are pre reno, I expect they will double, maybe triple at some point.
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They pulled permits thankfully.

Yikes. Excavation/shoring/footing permit for underpinning not passed yet. No occupancy permit. Sewer/Drain permit not passed. HVAC rough-in not passed. Structural framing not passed. Code deficiencies as of Dec/23.

They are trying to get a sucker on the hook. I would not go near this. Like most flips, they didn't do things properly and left a turd.

City of Toronto: Building Application Status

A source for published information on Building Permit Status.
secure.toronto.ca secure.toronto.ca

EDIT:
It's nowhere close to 80% complete. Board up is about 50% and it needs to come back down to pass inspections (and you hope what's under there passes).

How the hell do you construct a third storey prior to footing inspection pass?
 
GreyGhost said:
They pulled permits thankfully.

Yikes. Excavation/shoring/footing permit for underpinning not passed yet. No occupancy permit. Sewer/Drain permit not passed. HVAC rough-in not passed. Structural framing not passed. Code deficiencies as of Dec/23.

They are trying to get a sucker on the hook. I would not go near this. Like most flips, they didn't do things properly and left a turd.

City of Toronto: Building Application Status

A source for published information on Building Permit Status.
secure.toronto.ca secure.toronto.ca

EDIT:
It's nowhere close to 80% complete. Board up is about 50% and it needs to come back down to pass inspections (and you hope what's under there passes).

How the hell do you construct a third storey prior to footing inspection pass?
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How can you tell all of that. I tried typing the address in and saw some stuff on their permits but not that kind of detail. I noticed one part that said refusal notice but I don't see anymore info.
 
woot said:
How can you tell all of that. I tried typing the address in and saw some stuff on their permits but not that kind of detail. I noticed one part that said refusal notice but I don't see anymore info.
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Click each permit and you get more info. Not the best system but very helpful in your situation to quickly weed out turds. There is also city contact info for each permit. I'm not sure how receptive they are to random phone calls but if I was seriously considering buying, I would be calling all of them to see what info I could get.

EDIT:
This is a problem with CREA too. Imo, if a building has open permits or orders, that should be a mandatory part of the listing. Don't make people search for them, no hiding behind "buyer to do due diligence" right up from in the descriptive paragraph about how nice the neighbourhood is and how deeply troubled this site is.
 
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Dresden said:
Rewind back to 1980:
Interest rates trended down from 18% to 1.5% over 30 years. As a result, asset prices rocketed up as the dollar significantly lost its value over time. You could have bought anything, anything, even a house that caved in on itself and would have been bailed out by decreasing rates in the years to come. Your only concern? Can you hang on.

Now take 2024:
Interest rates at 7.2%. Highest in almost 2 decades.
House prices within splitting hair of all time high.
Yes rates will come down over time but nowhere near the pace as it did in the past. Meanwhile a million dollar mortgage pays $75k/yr in interest and that’s close to the norm.

Some other thoughts:
Early Millennials looking for their first homes were up against broke 35-45 year old gen-xers in 2008-2012 who’s investments were reeling from the 2008 fiasco. Gen Z is going to have a WILD TIME competing against late-to-the-game millennials who are well invested and have significantly higher incomes over 200k+ together.

This is exactly what growing up in a major metropolitan city in a developing country felt like pre 2016. Real estate was beyond the means of the middle class. Hence their desire to leave for a first world country at any cost.

This is not a Canada specific issue but Trudeau has absolutely exacerbated the issue.. his administration has shown complete inability to match federal goals with provincial policy. As a result, we have significant shortages in construction starts and infrastructure.

We just hit 41M population at the end of march. Of that, just 2.4% was natural births.. the rest immigration. It’s a necessary requirement to keep up gdp and keep us from the greatest depression known to mankind.

The bottom line IMO: we never deserved to grow this quickly.. In all areas.. wealth, health and otherwise. We now have a forever divide between the haves and have nots. Canada was the First g7 Nation To emerge out of the recession. Trudeau inherited a phenomenal economy and juiced it TO THE GILLS.

It’s going to get much much worse imo (affordability)
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Just a BS / shoulda theory from me but when WWII ended there was so much euphoria that the west went spending like a drunk sailor. Good long term leadership could have reined in the horses after a few well earned years but they didn't. Now the seams are about to burst and there are few people conditioned to take the hit.

At some point the expectations of the shareholders can't be met by the consumer. It gets ugly when deflation hits the stock market.
 
Jay Alexander said:
Early millenial here - this hit close to me. Looking to buy in GTA, and with cash, it's looking not nearly as bad as a year ago.

Reason why it's only $1 million is because the area isn't the best. There are quite a few detached for $1 million around Rogers road/Dufferin. Also for reasons @crankcall mentioned.
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It should be looking better. I just got a call from my mtg broker, he's hungry and offering 6-mo deals for 3.9%, and 5 year deals at 4.77%. Not horrible.
 
My buddy is looking at some duplex and three plex places out in Hamilton….

He says the lipstick on a pig flip jobs are ridiculous. Not sure whether people don’t know better, or don’t care, but he said the workmanship is horrendous.

I’m waiting for a house nearby that was flipped within a month…can’t wait to see the interior job.
 
Where do those patio doors go to? Thats going to be a pretty penny just to finish that off wont it?
 
Of course the Hamilton building search site is down. Was hoping to check the place my buddy will throw an offer in on.
 
hdsomeday said:
Where do those patio doors go to? Thats going to be a pretty penny just to finish that off wont it?
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Haha. You mean a third storey patio door to nowhere is a bad idea? No provision left for a deck. You could bolt up juliet balcony railings or more likely permanently pin the doors so they only open less than 4".

This is a huge stinker. I expect major issues were buried. Imo, it's worth much less than the base house they started with as it will cost more to get this caught up than to start from scratch.
 
House here in Bronte under construction, 20% built now for sale “as is “ you finish . I suspect where it’s sitting has serious groundwater issues .


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