COVID and the housing market | Page 347 | GTAMotorcycle.com

COVID and the housing market

Interesting question. Given that the timeline for closing will be destroyed, I am not sure if that gives the buyer an out to terminate without costs. I am sure the builder will argue that the delay is beyond their control and therefore not a valid reason to back out (assuming the current buyer is the builders most profitable option). If you were actually waiting for a house to move in to, adding another year or more to the move-in date is expensive and painful.
Nope. Closing delay penalties and outs are governed by Tarion. Act of god, fire, insurrection, pandemic.... all legitimate reasons to completely reset a new build delivery date.

Torching your new build before taking possession only buys time.
 
Nope. Closing delay penalties and outs are governed by Tarion. Act of god, fire, insurrection, pandemic.... all legitimate reasons to completely reset a new build delivery date.

Torching your new build before taking possession only buys time.
So I drop 300k on a new build, it torches, and then I don’t get the deposit back? It just extends the day of closing to whenever the rebuild happens?

Could work out for some if they have a place and rates drop again. Would suck if the second build got cancelled…
 
This guy is probably cherry picking a worst case scenario.......or is he?

One problem is when a house sells high the neighbours see their places as more valuable. When someone dumps a property buyers look at what sold cheap down the street and hope for the same bargain.

 
It's become a long range election issue now. Pierre's put out a 15 minute long video:
 
Burlington, lodi road. Three fires in two months. This one completely destroyed four homes under construction. Article is unclear whether previous fires were in houses under construction as well.

Who wants to bet that there is a reddit group on options if you can't afford to close?

 
Burlington, lodi road. Three fires in two months. This one completely destroyed four homes under construction. Article is unclear whether previous fires were in houses under construction as well.

Who wants to bet that there is a reddit group on options if you can't afford to close?

Desperate people will do desperate things.

I suspect this is a growing trend, determining the causes is usually easy, but finding the culprits if it's arson takes extra effort -- I wonder how high arson and insurance fraud investigations are on the priority list?

You'd think the suspect list would be rather small in most of these fires, prospective owners and small builders would come to mind as they are the only ones who benefit.
 
Desperate people will do desperate things.

I suspect this is a growing trend, determining the causes is usually easy, but finding the culprits if it's arson takes extra effort -- I wonder how high arson and insurance fraud investigations are on the priority list?

You'd think the suspect list would be rather small in most of these fires, prospective owners and small builders would come to mind as they are the only ones who benefit.
At least the collingwood one had on site security who called it in as soon as they noticed and they still lost a bunch of units. If pace picks up too much, insurance is going to start to get grumpy. Each of these fires is close to seven figures at the bottom end.

There is a townhouse site in barrie with dozens of dwellings under construction, exterior cladding not complete and no firebreak blocks. It wouldn't take much to take the site back an entire year with an eight figure claim and there are lots of buyers that are probably on the edge.
 
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There is a townhouse site in barrie with dozens of dwellings under construction, exterior cladding not complete and no firebreak blocks. It wouldn't take much to take the site back an entire year with an eight figure claim and there are lots of buyers that are probably on the edge.
I'm guessing most pre-build buyers would gladly accept a year's reprieve on their closing right now. Financially it's a big win for the buyer, particularly those with condo purchases. It gives them time to save if they have become unqualified for a mortgage, shortens the window where they pay occupancy fees (fire shouldn't delay the condo registration process), and with any luck interest rates will begin heading south in the next year.
 
I'm guessing most pre-build buyers would gladly accept a year's reprieve on their closing right now. Financially it's a big win for the buyer, particularly those with condo purchases. It gives them time to save if they have become unqualified for a mortgage, shortens the window where they pay occupancy fees (fire shouldn't delay the condo registration process), and with any luck interest rates will begin heading south in the next year.
Not easy to come up with comps in the area (nor exactly which units burned) but from looking at nearby properties, I suspect that buyers are locked in at 1.9-2.1M and market value is maybe 1.8-1.9. Not as big a correction as I expected but if you're 100K short, that is a huge gap to jump. What are private lending rates these days? Probably the wrong side of 15% if I had to guess. That's a tough nut and if private lender chooses not to renew, you have just punted your eviction by a year.
 
Not easy to come up with comps in the area (nor exactly which units burned) but from looking at nearby properties, I suspect that buyers are locked in at 1.9-2.1M and market value is maybe 1.8-1.9. Not as big a correction as I expected but if you're 100K short, that is a huge gap to jump. What are private lending rates these days? Probably the wrong side of 15% if I had to guess. That's a tough nut and if private lender chooses not to renew, you have just punted your eviction by a year.
I'll bet the correction is a lot bigger than that. I keep a very close eye on that area, we have a place about 1km away that I've been thinking of selling. Prices on newer homes that sold for $2M at peak are in the $1.5 range today. Check Zolo -- you'll see the bigger places have several listings since the summer, most have been discounted $250K or more since August and are still not selling.

Buyers on the new builds purchased at peak are likely $400K deep in deposits that have been wiped out. They'd need to come up with another $300K in cash to close + plus qualify for an additional $2K/mo in mortgage payments.

Ouchy.
 
I'll bet the correction is a lot bigger than that. I keep a very close eye on that area, we have a place about 1km away that I've been thinking of selling. Prices on newer homes that sold for $2M at peak are in the $1.5 range today. Check Zolo -- you'll see the bigger places have several listings since the summer, most have been discounted $250K or more since August and are still not selling.

Buyers on the new builds purchased at peak are likely $400K deep in deposits that have been wiped out. They'd need to come up with another $300K in cash to close + plus qualify for an additional $2K/mo in mortgage payments.

Ouchy.
A 4000 sq ft detached on that street sold earlier this year for 1.9. Most of the delisted houses were 4000 sq ft detached not yet built for 1.9-2.1. Further north in the subdivision, detached are selling for 1.5 (i didn't check sq ft).

EDIT:
Video released. Detached homes ~4000 sq ft on north side of Lodi as expected. Fire chief says this is third fire in houses under construction in this subdivision in the last two months (at least the second in one of the ones that was destroyed).

 
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Article on fires. Northbridge insurance has published a document warning builders about intentional development fires. The collingwood one had security guards on site who called it in right away and they still lost the houses. I won't be surprised if insurance companies force measures soon (skip every other house until enclosed and boarded, secure framed houses, motion sensors in every framed house, etc.).

 
Article on fires. Northbridge insurance has published a document warning builders about intentional development fires. The collingwood one had security guards on site who called it in right away and they still lost the houses. I won't be surprised if insurance companies force measures soon (skip every other house until enclosed and boarded, secure framed houses, motion sensors in every framed house, etc.).

Call me naive but what does burning down unfinished homes accomplish, beside giving the arsonist something to wank off to?
 
Call me naive but what does burning down unfinished homes accomplish, beside giving the arsonist something to wank off to?
One of the primary theories is to delay completion and therefore closing. Potentially, buyers that can no longer get financing and will be in big trouble when the house is competed and they need to close. Combination of much higher interest rates and also maybe a much lower assessed value by the bank. I am sure some also hope it will get them 100% out of the deal... but apparently that may not be the case.

Could also be other reasons but the above one is a prevailing one.

If they catch fire before being boarded (just mostly framed) they go up and spread to others in the same state fast.
 
Call me naive but what does burning down unfinished homes accomplish, beside giving the arsonist something to wank off to?
Easy way for buyers to delay / stop a project that they can't close on.

Good way for a builder to stop the project, and build new for higher prices in the future.

Great way for the builder to stop the project, get paid out by the insurance, declare bankruptcy, close company, start a new one, and rip more people off.
 
Call me naive but what does burning down unfinished homes accomplish, beside giving the arsonist something to wank off to?
Buys you time.

You bought a house for 1.3 with 200k down, planned on pulling a mortgage for 1M and putting in another 100 from sale of your existing house. House will now appraise at 1M. Bank will only give you 800k. Where do you come up with the 200k required to close the sale? Also issues with qualifying at 5.5% but now you need to qualify at 7.5% or so.

If you burn it down, that buys you about a year. Maybe the market is better then? You are already insolvent, potentially being more insolvent doesn't matter so why not roll the dice? You will probably have more equity in your existing house as you've made another year of payments. You've earned money for another year so maybe you've saved some or you got an inheritance or . . .

Time also helps with the stupid occupancy payments. If you were one of the early closings, you'd have a long time paying those rates (which some builders are using to screw buyers). Burn and maybe you are one of the later closings and can avoid them almost entirely.
 
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Article on fires. Northbridge insurance has published a document warning builders about intentional development fires. The collingwood one had security guards on site who called it in right away and they still lost the houses. I won't be surprised if insurance companies force measures soon (skip every other house until enclosed and boarded, secure framed houses, motion sensors in every framed house, etc.).

If they interleave the construction for detached homes like you suggested it will likely stop the spread but I bet it will also reduce the incidences as someone can't light the home on fire beside theirs, they will need to be specific (although they may just hit a bunch to spread the suspicion).
 
If they interleave the construction for detached homes like you suggested it will likely stop the spread but I bet it will also reduce the incidences as someone can't light the home on fire beside theirs, they will need to be specific (although they may just hit a bunch to spread the suspicion).
With competent security/alarms, it's not trivial to get a number of infernos going before the fire department shows up.

As with everything, there is no absolute solution, there is just moving the odds around. Like you said, every other house makes it far more complicated to burn yours down as there will be a finger pointed straight at you.
 
Easy way for buyers to delay / stop a project that they can't close on.

Good way for a builder to stop the project, and build new for higher prices in the future.

Great way for the builder to stop the project, get paid out by the insurance, declare bankruptcy, close company, start a new one, and rip more people off.
So both sides can be scum bags. I guess I am not wired for that way of thinking..
 

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