COVID and the housing market | Page 121 | GTAMotorcycle.com

COVID and the housing market

Ethics:

I was talking to an electrician who does heating cable repairs, getting referrals from various manufacturers. On one job the manufacturer is pushing the electrician to say the cable has to be replaced. I don't have the details but if, for example, it's a 200 foot pipe the manufacturer could score an eight to ten thousand dollar sale. The repair would be a third of that.

However to strip the cladding and insulation, replace the cable, re-insulate and re-clad could cost $200 per foot or far more depending on the height above ground.

Repair: Under $5K with a few hundred dollars in parts.

Replacement: Over $40K plus disruption

To get a sale of under $10K the manufacturer wants the end user to waste possibly ten times the amount of a repair.

Going back to the above beat-the-taxman house flip:

The pseudo owner has the deed in his hands and has been living rent free for a year and a half. The million dollar property has gone up $500K and he now reuses to move because the $50K rent he saved doesn't give him a down payment on his own place.

With an effective lawyer he might be able to delay the process two or three years, allowing him to save another $100K to $150K in rent.

Now if the real owner finally finds a way to avoid the CRA and has an IOU for the million he goes after his $1 million, getting back his capital, the secret loan.

Then the deed holder points out that the investor doesn't have a judgement against him and it's been over two years and after two years the debt is uncollectable unless the debtor admits to the debt or pays any amount in settlement. Then the clock resets.

All the debtors says is "I have no debt" and the investor is screwed.

At the end the deed holder gets a free house, now worth a million and a half, in exchange for his reputation.

Five or ten years later he has new friends and family. Life goes on. He feels good about himself because he screwed someone who was screwing the government.

The double edged sword. I knew a guy that cut his business taxes by putting his wife on the payroll but she never worked at the business. When they split up he fired her and she went after severance pay. He did not want her telling the CRA his secrets so paid up.

Be very careful who you sleep with, especially if you talk in your sleep.
 
I would say there is some (if not a lot) of truth to this.
 
Just saw this. I have not checked its veracity:
Some of the questions are dumb.

"Nearly half of Ontarians — 45% — say they’re worried their financial situation could worsen if interest rates go back up."

So 45% of ontarians have a mortgage? In the realm of normal people,a rise in interest rates makes your financial situation worse. If you have more in interest bearing investments than loans, maybe not but I suspect you are in the 99th percentile before you get there.
 
Some of the questions are dumb.

"Nearly half of Ontarians — 45% — say they’re worried their financial situation could worsen if interest rates go back up."

So 45% of ontarians have a mortgage? In the realm of normal people,a rise in interest rates makes your financial situation worse. If you have more in interest bearing investments than loans, maybe not but I suspect you are in the 99th percentile before you get there.
It's not as simple as that. You're assuming a level playing field where everyone is financially astute and knows exactly how interest rates will affect them.
Many people are ignorant, and heavily rely on professionals to help them along the correct path.
Say you've got 1-4 years left on a 5 year mortgage before paying off your house? Lots of people might be in that situation.

Edit: The financially aware ones would have already seen this coming with all of the debt the country has been taking on lately, and acted accordingly.
 
It's not as simple as that. You're assuming a level playing field where everyone is financially astute and knows exactly how interest rates will affect them.
Many people are ignorant, and heavily rely on professionals to help them along the correct path.
Say you've got 1-4 years left on a 5 year mortgage before paying off your house? Lots of people might be in that situation.
It would be interesting to see how many people are in the position to pay off their mortgage in their active term. Simple math says probably 20% (25 year mortgages with five year terms) but that could be very wrong in reality as 20% has a lot of assumptions in it.
 
Most houses near Barrie are still selling for "over asking" but the vast majority are $1,000 over asking. Just a marketing game by realtors to keep the heat on the market. I wouldn't be surprised if realtors were throwing in the last $1,000 if the buyers weren't willing to.
 
It would be interesting to see how many people are in the position to pay off their mortgage in their active term. Simple math says probably 20% (25 year mortgages with five year terms) but that could be very wrong in reality as 20% has a lot of assumptions in it.
Interest rates are around 1-2% now. Imagine if they were 18-20%.
I suppose if they go to 3-4%, that doubles the rate or more, but that should be within people's expectations, for the spending that's going on.
 
Interest rates are around 1-2% now. Imagine if they were 18-20%.
I suppose if they go to 3-4%, that doubles the rate or more, but that should be within people's expectations, for the spending that's going on.
Interest rates can't be 18 or 20% without collapsing the economy. When they were 18%, houses were an order of magnitude cheaper. The average new mortgage in canada is over $300K. At 18% that would be 54K a year in interest. For rates to climb that high, the median mortgage needs to drop to $100K or so at least have the people can keep their house. Still be a blood bath but possible. With current outstanding loans, there would be a complete implosion of housing and the entire economy.

Doubling the current interest rates is very plausible. Hopefully many people that bought expensive will get some paid off before then.


 
Interest rates can't be 18 or 20% without collapsing the economy. When they were 18%, houses were an order of magnitude cheaper. The average new mortgage in canada is over $300K. At 18% that would be 54K a year in interest. For rates to climb that high, the median mortgage needs to drop to $100K or so at least have the people can keep their house. Still be a blood bath but possible. With current outstanding loans, there would be a complete implosion of housing and the entire economy.

Doubling the current interest rates is very plausible. Hopefully many people that bought expensive will get some paid off before then.


You're not as old as I thought.
 
You're not as old as I thought.
Haha, how old did you think I was? How old do you think I am now?

That is a decent article. It has real numbers to support my recollection (1982, $73K average house price, 19.4% average five year fixed rate). Obviously I didn't factor in inflation (2.57x from 1982 to 2021 according to govt of canada goods basket). It would be interesting to see a current revision of that article. It was written in 2015 with an average house price of $439K. CBC reported in April 2021 that average price of a canadian house was $716K. Average debt service ratio was 10% in the 80's, 7% in 2015 and somewhere around 13% now.

Now if we look at in terms of relative instead of absolute rates, from G&M, rates went from x to 2x from 1967 to 1979, then 3x by 1982, 2x in 1984 and back to x around 1998. Doubling rates over 10 years wouldn't surprise me at all. A short spike at 3x could be possible too. I don't see a path to 10x without a decades long climb (which should be partly self-regulating as climbing rates keep prices from rocketing).


 
Enough people have made noise that the politicians and all the parties are talking about housing and have adopted it as a platform, but none of them are trying to bring some sort of fiscal responsibility or cooling measures, instead literally every single one of them is trying to get more people to ride the bubble, they just want more people aboard the train for when it goes off the rails
 
You're not as old as I thought.
Never say never.

That spike in interest rates back then changed credit cards in the USA. IIRC there was a maximum interest rate of around 12-13% and people were taking out credit card loans and buying term deposits at 18%.

Some state in the midwest threw out the limit and all the credit card companies moved their head offices there so they could hike the rates to stop the blood loss.

There are far higher interest rates for loaners if they want to take risks in dodgy countries.

Somewhere someone is trying to create another 2008 fiasco.
 

UH OH
And that's with the carefully curated basket to try to minimize the appearance. Make a real basket weighted like people spend and your head will spin. We should not be at all surprised. Housing is up. Gas is up. Used cars are worth more than they were purchased for years ago. It is mostly fake money and just inflated but people feel rich (or poor) depending on the assets they had going in.
 
And that's with the carefully curated basket to try to minimize the appearance. Make a real basket weighted like people spend and your head will spin. We should not be at all surprised. Housing is up. Gas is up. Used cars are worth more than they were purchased for years ago. It is mostly fake money and just inflated but people feel rich (or poor) depending on the assets they had going in.

How are we gonna get out of this mess :(?
 
So I got a targeted facebook ad for 5 Pandora Drive. 2.5M for 3300 finished sq ft (2250 legal sq ft) on ~0.5 acre lot. Hmm. Where is this, somewhere in Mississauga? Nope. Bleeping Guelph. Hells no. Backing onto commercial/industrial with Hwy 6 past that. I just don't see anywhere close to that price.

EDIT:
As I expected, they are asking more than 1M more than any previous sale in the neighbourhood. Crack I tell you.
 

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