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Coronavirus
- Thread starter nobbie48
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bigpoppa
Well-known member
I dont know where this 70% myth comes from, italy is in a major crisis, has roughly 50k confirmed cases, and they did a poor job containing this thing.
With a total population of 60 MILLION thats less than 1% of the total population, even if we assume they've only confirmed half the number of total infected people thats still a far cry from 70%
With a total population of 60 MILLION thats less than 1% of the total population, even if we assume they've only confirmed half the number of total infected people thats still a far cry from 70%
Trials
Well-known member
Good but it lacks the step of actually killing viruses that a disinfectant bath would provide, instead of more contaminated materials.
I don't think it's fair to judge at this point, everyone continues to underestimate the severity of what's going on here, even after everything we have seen from China and overseas. China can plead ignorance, we have no excuse. Eight days ago our Premier told people to go travel and enjoy their March break. Ontario still has not put into place a lockdown order even as the situation gets worse and worse just across the border.
We know what's going to happen in the very near future, but are not taking the steps to limit it's effects. What does that say about us?
spanish and swine flu were from the US, MERS from the middle east playing the who’s to blame game doesn’t help too much. What helps is changing the conditions that lead to infections in the first place so yes, wet markets will have to be looked at.
What percentage of people catch a common cold every winter?
Now take the cold virus and make it exponentially easier to become infected, even potentially from a neighbour 2-3 houses away sneezing and it floating into your space.
I was sitting out on my front porch yesterday afternoon and my neighbour 3 houses up the street on the opposite side started his carb'd hotrod in his garage...like he does every 3-4 days. It struck me exactly how quickly I smelled the exhaust because the wind was flowing in just the right direction.
Food for thought.
Can someone please post up an easy to follow link of COVID-19 projections for Ontario - maybe with some graphs or something?
I realize it's projections and conjecture, but I know that their predictive models should give a decent idea. I'm not looking for anything too technical, but simple and easy to understand without being based on opinions. I'm curious to see what the projections are for the GTA from a reputable source, which outlines when we should be hitting peak and then when some semblance of normalcy should begin.
Thanks!
I realize it's projections and conjecture, but I know that their predictive models should give a decent idea. I'm not looking for anything too technical, but simple and easy to understand without being based on opinions. I'm curious to see what the projections are for the GTA from a reputable source, which outlines when we should be hitting peak and then when some semblance of normalcy should begin.
Thanks!
Mad Mike
Well-known member
So does taking responsibility for containing a killer virus. Had the Chinese govt reacted in a more timely fashion, this would not be their most successful export.
From what’s been published and researched so far it is still large droplet/local transmission. Aerosol transmission hasn’t been proven. If it is aerosol and it is long lived then you’ll need NBC suits, surgical masks won’t do diddly.
Mad Mike
Well-known member
Hold on. The Spanish flu is widely regarded as originating in China, with Chinese somewhat resistant due to similar flus, SARS is same, COVID19 same, Swine flu same, Black Plague, bubonic plague... do I need to go on?
China needs to get their **** together with respect to worldwide public health. Virtuall every pandemic over the last thousand years started there.
Spanish was US origin. Swine flu was Oregon I believe. China does have an issue but they aren’t the only one. They do seem guilty of not learning though.
Trials
Well-known member
Yes just one more; where did Tuberculosis come from ?
and how many parts of any mammals body can it infect ?
Not long ago you were going on a cruise and not taking this seriously. Now you're saying the goal is spread it slowly. THE goal is to stop the spread totally. Countries are now arresting for breaking isolation. If you return to china you must wear a tracking braclet. Its coming.
Some residential high rises have hundreds of suites and a population of over a thousand, all normally wanting to go to work at about the same time. I'm not sure what the building code requirements are but elevators are expensive to install and maintain especially if the building is over three stories. I would guess a couple an elevator for every couple of hundred potential users, therefore a heavy morning and afternoon rush hour.
Working from home or staggered hours relieves some of the pressure but not all.
If you get on an empty elevator and then others (In denial) get on do you get off?
The problem isn't all that different than riding the subway, concentrated people movers, one vertical the other horizontal.
He had chronic leukemia. A lot of people have it and if they never go for check ups they don't even know it. When they find out very often it isn't even treated unless the blood count is really high. Acute is a whole different matter, update your will.
In situations in the past (I cant remember for what), they have reprogrammed elevators before to not stop on intermediate floors. Basically the first person in picks their floor and it goes straight there without stopping, then it goes to the next call button (presumably empty). That slows theoughput horrendously though and you could be waiting an hour for it to come.
The guy that came up with the Control-Alt-Delete cure for MS lockup commented that while he invented it Bill Gates made it popular. China may have invented some of these viruses but western demand for cheap goods made transmission easy.
Trials
Well-known member
Close but it is not blood count,
" in people with leukemia, the bone marrow produces abnormal white blood cells, which don't function properly"
It is your body making too many ineffective white blood cells and not enough healthy ones.
... think of it as a blood cancer.
True, but that skirts the issue that there is effectively two Chinas.
Re the percentage of people who will eventually get this ...
The Diamond Princess cruise ship was like a petri dish, and about 20% of the passengers (who would have had an age distribution biased towards older folks) contracted the disease, and this was with very thorough testing.
Out in the wild, with (thankfully) less perfect transmission of the virus, and not everyone coming in contact with everyone else as much or as frequently as on a cruise ship, one would hope that it will prove to be somewhat less than that.
Imperfect testing also means that the official case numbers out in the wild are certain to be less (probably much less) than the actual number who have contracted the virus and recovered without symptoms serious enough to warrant testing.
When the number of cases in Italy, Spain, Iran, France, and particularly South Korea and China is viewed on a logarithmic chart, the curve is flattening off, which means distribution is slowing. That's the first sign of hope. Case numbers in Europe (and North America) are still going up fast, and the numbers are still going to be a problem for our health care system in the coming weeks, but this WILL eventually pass.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship was like a petri dish, and about 20% of the passengers (who would have had an age distribution biased towards older folks) contracted the disease, and this was with very thorough testing.
Out in the wild, with (thankfully) less perfect transmission of the virus, and not everyone coming in contact with everyone else as much or as frequently as on a cruise ship, one would hope that it will prove to be somewhat less than that.
Imperfect testing also means that the official case numbers out in the wild are certain to be less (probably much less) than the actual number who have contracted the virus and recovered without symptoms serious enough to warrant testing.
When the number of cases in Italy, Spain, Iran, France, and particularly South Korea and China is viewed on a logarithmic chart, the curve is flattening off, which means distribution is slowing. That's the first sign of hope. Case numbers in Europe (and North America) are still going up fast, and the numbers are still going to be a problem for our health care system in the coming weeks, but this WILL eventually pass.
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