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Coronavirus

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GreyGhost said:
The bar collapse has started. Today Crocodile Rock and Emmas Back Porch both called it quits after 30 years. Restaurants may survive (many won't it's going to be rough), but bars are toast unless they own the building. It will be a long time before you have have a crowded booze filled venue. It's cheaper for them to pull the plug now and restart in 12 or 18 months when they are allowed to reopen in a profitable capacity.
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Drove by Emma's today and thought I should bookmark it for a meal when they open. Too late.

Why should they let themselves bleed to death for years. Save the money for better times.
When I started my company I shared space with a friend but wanted my own. I was dealing with a developer on another matter and mentioned it. He asked if I wanted to rent or to buy. When I said buy he replied "Good. We screw you when you rent."
 
Lockdowns are a temporary health relief and an economic disaster. Sweden's alternate strategy is a way around. As for JT's actions, the less said the better - guess who will be repaying the enormous fiscal debt being incurred? On that note what is the Oppn doing about this?
Here is Sweden's strategy:

"be free from the gravity of expectation"
 
Restaurants will close by the thousands, but guess what? you have 50-100k in leased equipment, 200k in financed fixtures, obligations on 50k in booze inventory and food. And you now may owe 2 months in back rentand possible franchise fees. I'd backrupt it. Because you open a new one when this mess is over. Canadian businesses going into recievership are inconvenienced not cooked.

Too bad about Emma's , they were the only? waterfront patio between the skyway and port credit I think.
 
Like @crankcall said, these bankruptcies are just to hold off until things get back to an economically financial normal. Why pay for leases, finances, rents, when you can walk away with a bankruptcy, shut down the company, wait it out, start a new one, and return? I'm surprised it's taken this long, and I expect to see a flood of these 'bankruptcies' happening shortly. The owners of the finances, leased equipment, and landlords will follow suit as they have their own financial obligations that they cannot meet as their cash flow dries up.

As for Sweden's strategy, as @Chris-CJ mentioned, they have their own issues where their COVID-19 numbers are through the roof compared to the surrounding countries. Sure it may not be as bad as some countries....but their deaths per million is 325 vs the US at 251 (official numbers anyway), or Canada at 241.

www.statista.com

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.
www.statista.com www.statista.com
 
Chris-CJ said:
Lockdowns are a temporary health relief and an economic disaster. Sweden's alternate strategy is a way around. As for JT's actions, the less said the better - guess who will be repaying the enormous fiscal debt being incurred? On that note what is the Oppn doing about this?
Here is Sweden's strategy:

"be free from the gravity of expectation"
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I only know one Swede but I am under the impression that the Scandinavians are well educated and practical, not buying into the US "I'm an Americun" superiority attitude. The Dunning Kruger syndrome is going to hurt the USA more than the Covid-19. Turning a Scandinavian loose in a candy store will not have the same results as turning an American loose.

Sweden has an established health care system and people use it to stay healthy. In the USA many wait until it's too late and the costs are higher. Many Americans are living with health issues that more advanced countries would have already treated. The backlog of medical issues in the USA couldn't be handled if they suddenly joined the universal medicare club.

It's better to be smart and healthy then dumb and sick.
 
crankcall said:
Restaurants will close by the thousands, but guess what? you have 50-100k in leased equipment, 200k in financed fixtures, obligations on 50k in booze inventory and food. And you now may owe 2 months in back rentand possible franchise fees. I'd backrupt it. Because you open a new one when this mess is over. Canadian businesses going into recievership are inconvenienced not cooked.

Too bad about Emma's , they were the only? waterfront patio between the skyway and port credit I think.
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Spencer's in Burlington and Snug Harbour in PC are the only two I know.

The food goes in the garbage. IMO departing employees should be told to help themselves.

Will LCBO take back sealed bottles?

Leased equipment goes back to the lessee and there will be a glut. Fixtures remain as a lure to anyone insane enough to want to re-open the place.
 
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Sweden has been dumping truckloads of chicken poo , which really stinks, into city parks to keep people out. Because staying out was optional, must not offend the population. Solution?? dump trucks of chicken **** in urban centers.

yeah , lets be more like Sweden.......
 
nobbie48 said:
Spencer's in Burlington and Snug Harbour in PC are the only two I know.
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Yes technically I would say your right, I left them out as Spenser is 200?ft from the lake and Snug is on the river, but indeed thats waterfront. There is also The Oakville Club, and Bronte Compass ( but its on the marina) , and Yolandas and Plank, but they are on the wrong side of the road LOL . I do love me a waterfront bar...... soon.....
 
crankcall said:
Too bad about Emma's , they were the only? waterfront patio between the skyway and port credit I think.
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Food wasn't that good, but the patio was a nice place to sit in the afternoon/evening for a drink or two.

crankcall said:
The Oakville Club, and Bronte Compass ( but its on the marina) , and Yolandas and Plank, but they are on the wrong side of the road LOL .
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I think they'll fare better. Smaller and other than possibly rent, lower overhead. Plus, lakefront patio or not, I'll drive another 20 minutes past Emma's then circle for a parking spot for Buffalo Sliders at Plank.
 
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Any bar/pub with an outdoor patio will fare better this summer than ones without as people will feel safer being outside (even if that still has risks) versus indoors.
 
PrivatePilot said:
Any bar/pub with an outdoor patio will fare better this summer than ones without as people will feel safer being outside (even if that still has risks) versus indoors.
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Outside is probably worse. Hopefully someone uses their brain and updates the distance based on some wind. It's one thing to stand in line for a few minutes, it's quite another to be downwind of someone for an hour.
 
mimico_polak said:
Like @crankcall said, these bankruptcies are just to hold off until things get back to an economically financial normal. Why pay for leases, finances, rents, when you can walk away with a bankruptcy, shut down the company, wait it out, start a new one, and return? I'm surprised it's taken this long, and I expect to see a flood of these 'bankruptcies' happening shortly. The owners of the finances, leased equipment, and landlords will follow suit as they have their own financial obligations that they cannot meet as their cash flow dries up.

As for Sweden's strategy, as @Chris-CJ mentioned, they have their own issues where their COVID-19 numbers are through the roof compared to the surrounding countries. Sure it may not be as bad as some countries....but their deaths per million is 325 vs the US at 251 (official numbers anyway), or Canada at 241.

www.statista.com

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.
www.statista.com www.statista.com
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Many of these businesses are mom and pop shops with sole proprietors or partnerships. Financing is typically done with personal guarantees.

Declaring bankruptcy may seem like a quick and dirty out however it's also a door closer for those who want to restart. Lending criteria for fragile businesses will be tighter -- it will be virtually impossible to get a lease, LOC, or equipment financing for years for businesses setup that way. It will also impact owner's personal lives as credit cards, loans and mortgages will all be impossible or at loan shark rates.
 
GreyGhost said:
Outside is probably worse. Hopefully someone uses their brain and updates the distance based on some wind. It's one thing to stand in line for a few minutes, it's quite another to be downwind of someone for an hour.
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outside is better...inside the dynamics of transmission all change. It’s why I’ve been trying to limit myself to a once a month main grocery shop.

The inside transmission thing is also why we are having issues working out if labs for undergrads are possible even if restrictions are lifted and social distancing becomes the norm for a while. The 2m distance means something like a 75% drop in capacity in some cases which means running 4x the number of labs etc. Expand that to a class of 1200 and you have some serious room/lab scheduling issues. Now that’s for one class, multiple classes use the rooms and labs. Then you have waiting periods outside in corridors that need social distancing measures. Elevators with a normal capacity of 8 people...that can’t work so those get disabled. That means stairs...not wide enough for social distancing, so one staircase for up, another for down. One entrance for in, one exit for out. What are common transmission points? Door handles...ok, so either have someone constantly wiping them down or keep the doors open all day....do that and the air handling in lab buildings goes to pot.

Its a nightmare. The busiest people right now are building managers trying to handle every possible scenario.
 
Mad Mike said:
Many of these businesses are mom and pop shops with sole proprietors or partnerships. Financing is typically done with personal guarantees.

Declaring bankruptcy may seem like a quick and dirty out however it's also a door closer for those who want to restart. Lending criteria for fragile businesses will be tighter -- it will be virtually impossible to get a lease, LOC, or equipment financing for years for businesses setup that way. It will also impact owner's personal lives as credit cards, loans and mortgages will all be impossible or at loan shark rates.
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Yes you're right. A lot of small time businesses will be hit hard and never recover. My comment was more for the larger scale corps / businesses. As I get older and are seeing more and more, it used to be that bankruptcies were the very last resort. Unfortunately I've seen them as people just using it to get out of their obligations, and then starting fresh with a new Ontario Corp number.
 
GreyGhost said:
Outside is probably worse. Hopefully someone uses their brain and updates the distance based on some wind. It's one thing to stand in line for a few minutes, it's quite another to be downwind of someone for an hour.
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Debatable.

If you're downwind of someone positive who is sneezing and coughing carrying it into the stream of wind you're in, it's a risk, sure..

If you're inside a building in which someone positive sneezed and coughed in before you came along and it's potentially still floating around because there's no fresh air exchange, or worse yet is being actively circulated around the entire interior of the building by the HVAC, not so much.

Infection risk in the first scenario is much smaller than the second.

But yes, I've been watching the airflow thing and quietly (and probably unnoticed by others) keeping myself upwind or crosswind of people when outdoors.
 
FullMotoJacket said:
Food wasn't that good, but the patio was a nice place to sit in the afternoon/evening for a drink or two.
I think they'll fare better. Smaller and other than possibly rent, lower overhead. Plus, lakefront patio or not, I'll drive another 20 minutes past Emma's then circle for a parking spot for Buffalo Sliders at Plank.
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PLANK at least has an interesting menu, and tasty. My only problem is FireHall, Plank, Cucci, Compass, PurVida are all owned by the same group, its the evil empire in Bronte. But I can see my boat from the patio so I know how far the drunken stumble is......
 
Well one upside to this mess is that if the findings below hold up, anyone being loud should get the boot from restaurants.

news.sky.com

Coronavirus: Restaurant experiment shows how quickly COVID-19 spreads

Further research finds speaking loudly spreads more of the disease which remains in the air for more than eight minutes.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

The video was released as research by Stanford University found speaking transmits the virus.

The louder people speak, the more droplets are dispersed, the study found.

Researchers said with just one minute of loud speaking, at least 1,000 infected droplets remain in the air for more than eight minutes.

These can then be inhaled by other people, triggering a new COVID-19 infection
 
crankcall said:
PLANK at least has an interesting menu, and tasty. My only problem is FireHall, Plank, Cucci, Compass, PurVida are all owned by the same group, its the evil empire in Bronte. But I can see my boat from the patio so I know how far the drunken stumble is......
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Oh man we used to go to the FireHall weekly when my sister lived on Burloak. Such good wings there! I was driving by recently and saw it's torn down for condos and now a little bit further east in a new location.
 
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