Are you worried about the debt?

[backmarkerducati]

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For anyone worried about deficits there is no legit choice between the three.

Liberals have a documented platform and it includes deficits.
NDP has a documented platform and it includes deficits.
PCs have NO documented platform, say they will balance the books but Ford if promising 10s of billions in increased spending (subways, more hospital beds, whatever he thinks voters want to hear), big tax cuts and a measly $6B in efficiency savings. Totally does not add up, but no platform document so no real numbers....

Basically all three are talking huge deficits, two are being honest about it and one is not.... No wonder there is no documented PC platform--the numbers do not add up--not even close... People say voting NDP or Liberal is stupid, what does that make voting PC with no platform because it is all pixie dust--that is hard core dumb.

BUT we should be concerned even if there is no party actually willing to deal with it...

When the Liberals took power interest on the debt was around 15% of total spending, today it is only 8% (debt is way higher BUT interest rates are way lower today--and spending is higher of course, so it is a lower percentage). Interest rates are going up and we could see 15%, maybe even 20% in the near future. Let that sink in, 1 out of every 5 dollars spent will just be interest in the not so distant future!

Too bad once again, none of the parties will balance anything.

Anyone disagree, show us the numbers in the PC Platform Document......

 

[Mad Mike]

For anyone worried about deficits there is no legit choice between the three.

Liberals have a documented platform and it includes deficits.
NDP has a documented platform and it includes deficits.
PCs have NO documented platform, say they will balance the books but Ford if promising 10s of billions in increased spending (subways, more hospital beds, whatever he thinks voters want to hear), big tax cuts and a measly $6B in efficiency savings. Totally does not add up, but no platform document so no real numbers....

Basically all three are talking huge deficits, two are being honest about it and one is not.... No wonder there is no documented PC platform--the numbers do not add up--not even close... People say voting NDP or Liberal is stupid, what does that make voting PC with no platform because it is all pixie dust--that is hard core dumb.

BUT we should be concerned even if there is no party actually willing to deal with it...

When the Liberals took power interest on the debt was around 15% of total spending, today it is only 8% (debt is way higher BUT interest rates are way lower today--and spending is higher of course, so it is a lower percentage). Interest rates are going up and we could see 15%, maybe even 20% in the near future. Let that sink in, 1 out of every 5 dollars spent will just be interest in the not so distant future!

Too bad once again, none of the parties will balance anything.

Anyone disagree, show us the numbers in the PC Platform Document......

Woah ***FAKE NEWS ALERT***

Lets get some of your facts straight:

Interest on the debt: When Libs took office Ont debt was $140B, this fiscal year will end at $325B. Debt to GDP was 27% in 2004, it's 40% now - that's about a 50% increase in debt service costs during the Liberal reign. Ontario is the most indebted non sovereign govt in the world -- think of it this way, California - the most indebted US state carries $300B CAD in state debt, a little less than Ontario at $325B -- but remember their GDP is 6x Ontario with 3x the population (meaning they are almost twice as productive and therefor better able to pay debts). Since 2004 California has increased debt by $90B, Ontario by $185B.

Bond rates for Ontario were in the 3.5% range in 2004, they are about the same today -- remember we had better credit back then, bond rating agencies did not consider Ontario a default risk.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY TO SPIN ANY ARGUMENT TO CONCLUDE WE PAY LESS IN DEBT SERVICE TODAY THAN WE DID IN 2004.

 

[J_F]

you missed one metric MM

BMD was expressing debt service as a percentage of annual budget
of course if you blow the budget out of the water
debt service is going to become a smaller part of that pie
although the value of the slice is much larger

voodoo economics for sure
decreased debt by massively increased spending

 

[Mad Mike]

you missed one metric MM

BMD was expressing debt service as a percentage of annual budget
of course if you blow the budget out of the water
debt service is going to become a smaller part of that pie
although the value of the slice is much larger

voodoo economics for sure
decreased debt by massively increased spending

I see. That's such an asinine argument I didn't even consider it!

 

[nobbie48]

To be fair, you have to look at how many operations added jobs in the same time frame. It is totally unreasonable to look at only one side of the ledger.

I have a couple of customers who are currently adding expansions to their existing facilities or recently completed them.

The biggest problem in manufacturing, as of right now, is finding enough good people to fill the available positions.

We. collectively, have gutted training for skilled trades in this province, and it starts by having gutted high school shop classes. Not enough people are being trained in how to build and fix stuff any more.

Greasy fingernails are out of style. I know people that have poor paying jobs but won't switch up because the better paying, more challenging jobs don't have managerial titles.

When I was in touch with the tool and die industry almost every T&D maker was European. Has that changed?

Part 2 with whacko down south it's hard to get support for a major enterprise because by the time it becomes operational he might have gone off on a different tangent. Opening a burger joint or building a few homes is safer.

 

[caboose56]

To be fair, you have to look at how many operations added jobs in the same time frame. It is totally unreasonable to look at only one side of the ledger.

I have a couple of customers who are currently adding expansions to their existing facilities or recently completed them.

The biggest problem in manufacturing, as of right now, is finding enough good people to fill the available positions.

We. collectively, have gutted training for skilled trades in this province, and it starts by having gutted high school shop classes. Not enough people are being trained in how to build and fix stuff any more.

Greasy fingernails are out of style. I know people that have poor paying jobs but won't switch up because the better paying, more challenging jobs don't have managerial titles.

When I was in touch with the tool and die industry almost every T&D maker was European. Has that changed?

Part 2 with whacko down south it's hard to get support for a major enterprise because by the time it becomes operational he might have gone off on a different tangent. Opening a burger joint or building a few homes is safer.

I start a new job next Monday.

My resume reads as a mechanical engineer, and it took a fair bit of convincing to get the two owners to believe me that I was ok with the down and dirty field work. Sweat, mud, blisters, calluses, and the odd bit of blood is a-ok with me.

I'm looking forward to not being tied to a desk all day anymore.

 

[backmarkerducati]

Woah ***FAKE NEWS ALERT***

Lets get some of your facts straight:

Interest on the debt: When Libs took office Ont debt was $140B, this fiscal year will end at $325B. Debt to GDP was 27% in 2004, it's 40% now - that's about a 50% increase in debt service costs during the Liberal reign. Ontario is the most indebted non sovereign govt in the world -- think of it this way, California - the most indebted US state carries $300B CAD in state debt, a little less than Ontario at $325B -- but remember their GDP is 6x Ontario with 3x the population (meaning they are almost twice as productive and therefor better able to pay debts). Since 2004 California has increased debt by $90B, Ontario by $185B.

Bond rates for Ontario were in the 3.5% range in 2004, they are about the same today -- remember we had better credit back then, bond rating agencies did not consider Ontario a default risk.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY TO SPIN ANY ARGUMENT TO CONCLUDE WE PAY LESS IN DEBT SERVICE TODAY THAN WE DID IN 2004.

Sorry it is so hard to understand....maybe reread what I posted.

We pay a lower percentage of the total expenditure (where did I mention GDP?????), because we have a slightly better rate today than then AND spending is increased so much (so total spent servicing the debt is less percentage wise of total spending).

For example:

If was spending $10 in interest but my total spending is $100, I am at 10% of spending on interest.

If I am now spending $12 (which is more BTW) in interest but my total spending is now $200, I am at 6% of spending on interest.

The problem, as interest goes up we are pooched due to the increased size of the debt. Spending increases are a big part of why said debt is so high (thanks Provincial Liberals). None of the three parties have any actual plan to balance this.

Sorry if this basic stuff is so hard to understand.


I am sure this will also be labelled "fake news" as well:

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...-pc-platform-is-coming-but-wont-say-when.html

Advanced polls are open, how can anyone that is at all informed vote for someone with no platform! How do you know what you are voting for or what you have already voted for????

 

[backmarkerducati]

And in other news, the Doug Ford slide continues....

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

They peaked at 50% (super majority territory) pre-Doug, down to 34.7% now. Still a week and change to go. Must be their fully costed platform, of wait they don't yet have one (yet).

I have never seen a party not want to win an election so bad. All they (technically we as I am a member) had to do was make Elliott leader....

 

[jc100]

I’ll vote PC when they promise me a castle in Barbados.....which should be any minute now. People are complaining about Liberals trying to buy votes....man, the PCs are doing the exact same thing.

Until then.....seriously looking at orange crush now.

 

[fastar1]

Ok, the list means nothing to you. Let me ask you a few questions"

1) Where did the 300,000 manufacturing jobs go?
2) Explain why Ontario's manufacturing output in dollars is 20% lower than 2005 AND nearly 40% lower when compared against what it should be when adjusted for GDP growth in Ontario.
3) Explain how Ont gov't job growth was 4x private sector growth in the last 15 years.
4) What percentage of Ontario jobs are based on construction and stimulus spending? What if this bubble bursts?
5) During economic booms in the USA Ontario runs massive trade surpluses. Not this time, not enough manufacturing to enjoy the boom, we're running a trade deficit. Explain that.

No one of these things is alarming, put them together and one needs to think about how long we can go.

Just as it's impossible to draw conclusions from a list of companies who've left Ontario, so is it impossible to draw conclusions from a list of questions. Unless you're RockerGuy, then they make you depressed and sad.

I'm sure you have a valid point to make at some level but you're completely failing to make it.

 

[Mad Mike]

Sorry it is so hard to understand....maybe reread what I posted.

We pay a lower percentage of the total expenditure (where did I mention GDP?????), because we have a slightly better rate today than then AND spending is increased so much (so total spent servicing the debt is less percentage wise of total spending).

For example:

If was spending $10 in interest but my total spending is $100, I am at 10% of spending on interest.

If I am now spending $12 (which is more BTW) in interest but my total spending is now $200, I am at 6% of spending on interest.

The problem, as interest goes up we are pooched due to the increased size of the debt. Spending increases are a big part of why said debt is so high (thanks Provincial Liberals). None of the three parties have any actual plan to balance this.

Sorry if this basic stuff is so hard to understand.


I am sure this will also be labelled "fake news" as well:

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...-pc-platform-is-coming-but-wont-say-when.html

Advanced polls are open, how can anyone that is at all informed vote for someone with no platform! How do you know what you are voting for or what you have already voted for????

I did actually see a way to arrive at such an utterly useless statement -- I it was so useless of a commentary I convinced myself you may have been brainwashed into writing it.

Sadly you confirmed it's just a useless, irrelevant, meaningless, dumbass play with stats.

Go back and read what you posted, then tell us where a shred of goodness comes out of that great achievement.

Better yet, give me your credit cards. I'll run them up high and fast, that way you can boast to all your friends that you spent a smaller percentage of your spend on servicing debt this year.

 

[Mad Mike]

Just as it's impossible to draw conclusions from a list of companies who've left Ontario, so is it impossible to draw conclusions from a list of questions. Unless you're RockerGuy, then they make you depressed and sad.

I'm sure you have a valid point to make at some level but you're completely failing to make it.

My point is the job losses are taking a toll. The questions were posed mostly to see whether you understood them and how they relate to the Ontario economy.

 

[fastar1]

My point is the job losses are taking a toll. The questions were posed mostly to see whether you understood them and how they relate to the Ontario economy.

I can answer those questions based on my pre-existing understanding of the economy. Not surprisingly, those answers will validate that pre-existing understanding they're based off. If I want to use those questions to challenge and perhaps correct those existing assumptions and uncover the truth then I'd have to answer them without prejudice, without assuming anything. The unprejudiced, honest answer to those questions is "I don't know".

I realize people have a hard time admitting they don't know something, but it's an essential component of discovering the truth. Instead you'll hear people give the answer they believe is true and when questioned about how they know that, will claim that it's 'common sense' or 'logical', which it never is.

 

[nobbie48]

Who holds the debt? If the IOU's are held by Ontarians and they pay taxes on the interest is it as bad as the IOU's being held by China. Does it matter as much if the debt is in the family so to speak?

 

[Mad Mike]

I can answer those questions based on my pre-existing understanding of the economy. Not surprisingly, those answers will validate that pre-existing understanding they're based off. If I want to use those questions to challenge and perhaps correct those existing assumptions and uncover the truth then I'd have to answer them without prejudice, without assuming anything. The unprejudiced, honest answer to those questions is "I don't know".

I realize people have a hard time admitting they don't know something, but it's an essential component of discovering the truth. Instead you'll hear people give the answer they believe is true and when questioned about how they know that, will claim that it's 'common sense' or 'logical', which it never is.

That's an acceptable (and brave) answer. Economics questions are always tough to answer, particularly through a political or partisan lens.

Unfortunately political agenda and economic sobriety don't always go hand in hand - I think this is the main failing of the current Liberal party -- maybe all Canadian political parties. Liberals are not stupid -- they know that the public sector can be used as a huge elastic buffer for employment and that's what they have done - when a private sector job was lost, Liberals created a gov't job to replace it - not because we needed another gov't worker, because they needed to manage job numbers.

The right way to do this is stimulus spending. When times are tough, gov't issues contracts to temporarily create employment - dig a ditch, build a highway, renovate a school etc. This can be repeated and extended until better times return.

The easy but wrong thing to do is create permanent gov't bureaucracy that needs permanent workers. This doesn't not switch off when times get good, and if your gov't is lazy (i.e. Liberals) they get addicted to the simplicity of managing job numbers this way.

 

[nobbie48]

That's an acceptable (and brave) answer. Economics questions are always tough to answer, particularly through a political or partisan lens.

Unfortunately political agenda and economic sobriety don't always go hand in hand - I think this is the main failing of the current Liberal party -- maybe all Canadian political parties. Liberals are not stupid -- they know that the public sector can be used as a huge elastic buffer for employment and that's what they have done - when a private sector job was lost, Liberals created a gov't job to replace it - not because we needed another gov't worker, because they needed to manage job numbers.

The right way to do this is stimulus spending. When times are tough, gov't issues contracts to temporarily create employment - dig a ditch, build a highway, renovate a school etc. This can be repeated and extended until better times return.

The easy but wrong thing to do is create permanent gov't bureaucracy that needs permanent workers. This doesn't not switch off when times get good, and if your gov't is lazy (i.e. Liberals) they get addicted to the simplicity of managing job numbers this way.

Ideally the government saves some money from the good times so the make work projects can be done when things are slow and prices are more competitive. Put a damper on the pendulum so to speak.

Unfortunately bureaucracies are too tied up in red tape to work like small businesses or the home.

 

[Mad Mike]

Ideally the government saves some money from the good times so the make work projects can be done when things are slow and prices are more competitive. Put a damper on the pendulum so to speak.

Unfortunately bureaucracies are too tied up in red tape to work like small businesses or the home.

This is true, their job is to smooth out the bumps. The problem with the current regime is they took moved Ontario's economy away from its traditional strength in manufacturing and shoved it in the direction of service industries. That's OK if there is a plan for prosperity, in this case it's more like a train coming off the rails -- all the Liberals have done is create a huge number of gov't jobs and low paying service jobs.

What should have happened is when the global, and particularly the US economy started it's upturn, we should be enjoying a boom in manufacturing and we should be banking the economic benefits. Problem is with fewer factories, there's not enough production capacity to take advantage of the the hungry booming southern markets. This is the first time in history Ontario has a trade deficit with the US -- that's troubling as historically in good times Ontario manufacturing output generates massive trade surpluses. Double jeporady considering the US dollar buys $1.30 worth of Canadian stuff.

 

[nobbie48]

This is true, their job is to smooth out the bumps. The problem with the current regime is they took moved Ontario's economy away from its traditional strength in manufacturing and shoved it in the direction of service industries. That's OK if there is a plan for prosperity, in this case it's more like a train coming off the rails -- all the Liberals have done is create a huge number of gov't jobs and low paying service jobs.

What should have happened is when the global, and particularly the US economy started it's upturn, we should be enjoying a boom in manufacturing and we should be banking the economic benefits. Problem is with fewer factories, there's not enough production capacity to take advantage of the the hungry booming southern markets. This is the first time in history Ontario has a trade deficit with the US -- that's troubling as historically in good times Ontario manufacturing output generates massive trade surpluses. Double jeporady considering the US dollar buys $1.30 worth of Canadian stuff.

An oddity: The more people the government hires the harder it is to actually speak to someone.

 

[kwtoxman]

I was worried about the provincial debt back in the early 2000's before Lib's so impressively blew it up much much worse.


I'm not worried any more. Much of the first world is being run unsustainably and no one really cares, least of all most people. All great societies eventually crash. Just ask the Romans about the Roman Empire.

"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
https://www.history.com/news/8-reasons-why-rome-fell

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