2022 MotoGP Discussion (No Links - Contains Spoilers!)

[Priller]

Honestly, he is riding that bike in a Lorenzo-esque manner and just checking out from the pack. I think he will run away with the championship now while scoring when the bike isn't capable of race wins. Yamaha essentially will need to build the team around him to keep him happy, and I can see him taking on Rins as team mate to act as a safe number 2 rider since Franky can't do a thing on the bike and is just as bad as Mav at this point. Mir would be too much of a challenge in the same garage in my view as I think he is the better rider between the two.

I don't think Morbido is going anywhere next season, especially as Yamaha's poaching of him from RNF midseason was part of the reason they eventually bailed for Aprilia. A small part, but still a part. He's under contract, and Yamaha has nowhere else to put him now. As for the Maverick comparison, don't forget that he had a win and a second place by the halfway point of the season last year, so he was light years ahead of what Morbidelli has done this year. Lin Jarvis should be paying Fabio literal mountains of cash, as the Frenchman has totally bailed out the relentless mismanagement of Yamaha's GP effort. He's alienated his satellite team, forced them to sign a rider who was too slow for Aprilia when they were desperate, forced an ancient Rossi onto them last year, and generally botched everything bar lucking into Quartararo via the SRT talent spotting skills. Jarvis was taking pot shots at Ducati, saying Yamaha prefers to focus on one talented rider (trying to put a positive spin on not having a satellite team), but without Fabio, they're worse off than Honda...

Taka's crash was hideous to watch, his head bouncing off of Pecco's bike was terrifying. I think he was riding way beyond his limit with cold tires since he knows he is likely out of a ride for next year.

Oof, was it ever. I knew it was bad when you could see Taka's visor go flying from the overhead helicopter shot, but didn't know until after just how hard he'd headbutted Pecco's wheel. He's 100% gone next year, and good riddance from Rins' perspective. Apparently Taka is not popular with a number of the riders for his recklessness on the track, but he's such a nice guy off track that he's mostly gotten a free pass.

Aleix was just embarrassing, but it salvaged what was otherwise a pretty boring race tbh. This is a reminder that one should never stop until they see a checkered flag. I'm surprised the dash doesn't have that to be honest, but after this it will likely be on there for Sachsenring. I still don't think Aliex had a real chance of winning a title, this will be his best season and will likely be P2 if Ducati remains as inconsistent as he has been but otherwise Fabio will win by Thailand at this rate.

I hope for Aleix's sake that he doesn't lose the championship by less than nine points! As fun as it's been having Aprilia at the pointy end this year, I don't think that bike is quite ready to be a true title contender unless something horrible happens to Quartararo. It reminds me a bit of Mir on the Suzuki, capable of winning by consistency only if nobody else can find steady speed. It's a bit Jack of all trades, with few weaknesses but also nowhere that it's notably stronger than the Yamaha approach or the Ducati approach.

One thing's for sure: Aleix was already the hardest working rider in the series, but he's going to find a way to dig even deeper now.

Marc's surgery seems to have been a success so now it's just waiting for the healing process and recovery phase to begin. I really hope this works out, because otherwise that's it for him: barring him running that robotic prosthetic arm from Honda their aren't many options left for him now after 4 surgeries. I doubt we will ever see a repeat of 2019 but if HRC go back to what they did before his crash and solve the front end feeling I think he has another title maybe two left in him yet. If Yamaha get more power somehow it will be good to see Fabio and a healthy Marc go at it again, their duel in Thailand feels like ages ago his rookie season.

Sounds like this surgery is as much about finding some quality of life for Marc as it is about getting him back to racing. From what I heard, his bone had healed 30 degrees (!) rotated offset, which meant he was spending his down time in physio and on painkillers. This surgery was to cut the bone cleanly across and rotate it back to where it should be.

As for Yamaha getting more power, apparently they have it available, but it upsets the handling elsewhere. To be honest, I think a lot of that was Fabio angling for a better deal, as Binder was third fastest through the traps at Mugello, and I think Quartararo only got passed once on the straight, by Bagnaia. That's not the slow bike everyone was banging on about at Qatar. Maybe it'll be a bigger issue when they move away from the old European tracks with fast corners leading onto the main straight, but right now, it doesn't look like Quartararo is being held back by his machinery.

 

[thwak]

I don't understand Marc at all on continuing to race with everything he's been through. I know all the greats in every sport think and act differently, and that's what makes them who they are. Marc's methodology is "how can you find and learn the limit unless you break through it?". He's going to come back after surgery and he's going to crash. It's inevitable. Why continue?

 

[Chaos]

I was bored and added a silly season page to the first post. I think things are going to get interesting rapidly.

 

[Priller]

I was bored and added a silly season page to the first post. I think things are going to get interesting rapidly.

Quartararo was the biggest puzzle piece, especially with all the noise his manager was making about testing waters elsewhere.

Here's the latest I've heard from Italian and other rumours:

Sounds like Miller to KTM is already signed but won't be announced until Sachsenring. Oliviera is then likely to take Bestia's seat at Gresini, with Diggia staying on based on his improving form.

The prodigal son returns to KTM, with Pol going to Tech3, though his partner is less clear. KTM is desperate to keep Fernandez over Gardner, but he's equally desperate to leave. Aprilia are trying to court him as well as Rins, though LCR apparently also want Rins in Alex Marquez's spot.

Mir to Honda is apparently almost there, though not yet done. He wants them and they want him, so it's probably only a matter of time and possibly working out some assurances that he'll have input into bike development even after Marc comes back, which is apparently something Pol never got in a meaningful way.

Bestia and Martin fight over the factory Ducati seat, with the other getting the same deal Martin has now at Pramac with a 2023 bike (joining a returning Zarco). Bestia was lining up to have the 'better' slot, but his recent crashing and mouthing off about Bagnaia haven't helped, so it's still undecided...

 

[Chaos]

Quartararo was the biggest puzzle piece, especially with all the noise his manager was making about testing waters elsewhere.

Here's the latest I've heard from Italian and other rumours:

Sounds like Miller to KTM is already signed but won't be announced until Sachsenring. Oliviera is then likely to take Bestia's seat at Gresini, with Diggia staying on based on his improving form.

The prodigal son returns to KTM, with Pol going to Tech3, though his partner is less clear. KTM is desperate to keep Fernandez over Gardner, but he's equally desperate to leave. Aprilia are trying to court him as well as Rins, though LCR apparently also want Rins in Alex Marquez's spot.

Mir to Honda is apparently almost there, though not yet done. He wants them and they want him, so it's probably only a matter of time and possibly working out some assurances that he'll have input into bike development even after Marc comes back, which is apparently something Pol never got in a meaningful way.

Bestia and Martin fight over the factory Ducati seat, with the other getting the same deal Martin has now at Pramac with a 2023 bike (joining a returning Zarco). Bestia was lining up to have the 'better' slot, but his recent crashing and mouthing off about Bagnaia haven't helped, so it's still undecided...

Yup. You captured everything I am aware of as well. You even got: Rins to LCR which i did not hear, but it makes sense.

I think when the musical chairs stop, you will see:
In: Ogura; Celestino Vietti
Out: Andrea Dovizioso, Alex Marquez, Darryn Binder, Taka Nakagami

If we didn't lose 2 bikes, I think Marquez and Binder would have remained on the grid.

 

[Chaos]

Miller signed with KTM after all

Official: Jack Miller signs two-year deal with KTM

KTM has confirmed three-time MotoGP race winner Jack Miller will join its factory team next season after signing the Australian to a two-year deal.

www.crash.net

 

[Jayv]

Miller signed with KTM after all

Official: Jack Miller signs two-year deal with KTM

KTM has confirmed three-time MotoGP race winner Jack Miller will join its factory team next season after signing the Australian to a two-year deal.

www.crash.net

Interesting where does Pedro Acosta end up? I think now he's getting to grips with Moto2, I can't see him staying there in 2024 and would he be happy taking a Tech3 KTM seat.

 

[Chaos]

Interesting where does Pedro Acosta end up? I think now he's getting to grips with Moto2, I can't see him staying there in 2024 and would he be happy taking a Tech3 KTM seat.

He'll be in Moto2 next year for sure - he will be too young to join next year. I think though it's inevitable he joins motogp in 2024. I bet you will see one of the tech3 riders get a 1-year deal only.

 

[TK4]

A veiled warning to MotoGP from its oldest sponsor - The Race

A remarkable article by Repsol takes aim at MotoGP over poor racing, aerodynamics, ride-height devices, the burden on riders and the calendar

the-race.com

 

[Chaos]

A veiled warning to MotoGP from its oldest sponsor - The Race

A remarkable article by Repsol takes aim at MotoGP over poor racing, aerodynamics, ride-height devices, the burden on riders and the calendar

the-race.com

ok, the calendar issue is fair. Selfishly speaking, the more races the better, but I am not part of the travelling circus. Simultaneously, you want money to be sustainable to keep the satellite teams afloat, what other way is there to do it? Cost cap perhaps? More races bring more revenue for Dorna to distribute

With respect to the aero and ride height devices, Dorna/FIM have given full reigns to MSMA to decide specs. They have a 6 yes - 1 no voting structure - moreover, at the moment, Ducati will not vote to ban aero and ride height devices. They invested in it - they're going to keep it.

This is a no-win. If Dorna/FIM take back specs, they will piss off a manufacturer and they will leave. Give the vote to MSMA, and they will still get ****** off and leave.

Maybe it's time to go back to the CRT spec. Build a bike, and allow any other team to buy it for a capped price. This will probably kiss all the manufacturers goodbye, but they're all a bunch of sociopaths anyway.

 

[Priller]

Pretty rich for Honda to ghostwrite an article complaining about the rules now when they're struggling to build a competitive bike. They were perfectly happy to spend everyone else back into oblivion when they were in their pomp. They built a V5 purely to take advantage of a rules loophole, for crying out loud. Impressive? Yes. Ridiculous? Also yes.

I think we have to be careful to avoid old-curmudgeon-syndrome when talking about rules etc. For example, the aero stuff always generates a lot of, "It's so ugly!" whining from the old fart brigade, but many of the same folks also whinged endlessly about the loss of two-strokes. There will always be a rose-tinted glasses element to remembering racing in the 'good old days", and we tend to remember the classics while forgetting about all the processions. I went back and watched some racing from the '90s a while back, and I was stunned by just how dull much of it was. Massive time gaps, riders getting lapped, minimal passing.

MotoGP is a prototype class, intended to be the absolute fastest motorcycles you can (reasonably) safely put a talented rider on to lap twisty circuits of a moderate length. It's not a spec class, nor is it one where 'spectacle' (i.e. passing) is the largest priority. There is also the factor of having close racing on the day, as well as close racing for the championship. 2019 had a few dramatic days, but the overall championship was an absolute snoozefest, with the big stakes gone before the halfway point of the season.

I will admit, this season has had some dull racing, at least at the front. But there have been a few tight ones, including Binder chasing Bastianini at Qatar to open the year, as well as Espargaro's win over Martin in Argentina. There's also been some good dicing further back, with podium swaps coming late in races. As someone cheering for the Aleix/Aprilia underdog story, even races that people complained endlessly about like Mugello have been absolute nailbiters. Going back to last year, there was plenty of drama, including Marquez passing Bagnaia multiple times in the closing stages at Aragon.

While the ride height devices will be curbed next year, I'm not convinced aero is a problem except for Honda, who can't seem to figure it out. Yamaha have gone back to their 2021 'less is more' design and immediately started winning again, for example. The reality is that power is no longer the limiting factor in speed, with the physics of wheelying being the bigger problem. Without aero, development stalls, as the gains get smaller and smaller. We end up with essentially the same bikes for years.

The much bigger issue is tire development, as it shouldn't take years and years for Michelin to develop a new design. The problem there is the extremely limited testing time available to the factories, which means they refuse to try the new tires because they want that track time to develop for more pressing concerns. What Dorna needs to do is accelerate the tire development by setting up tests where the manufacturers are forced to use the new tires with their development riders together (Savadori, Bradl, Crutchlow, Pirro, Pedrosa) so that they can get this done. If they can develop tires where the temperature related pressure (and consequently grip and wear) isn't as affected by following vs leading, for example, it'll open a lot more options for riders.

Honda (and Yamaha and their riders) love to blame Ducati for bending the rules, but that is pretty disingenuous. They're cranky partly because Ducati is finding advantages in ways that the big two Japanese makers aren't comfortable with, some of which costs money at a time when the Japanese brands are clearly into cost-cutting mode. The other stuff in that griping article makes no sense: longer season should mean a crash has less impact on the championship, not more. And the physical demands are part of the sport. Just because their golden boy can't stop crashing and breaking his body doesn't mean that's a reason to change the rules.

Aside from the front ride height devices (already fixed) and tire testing (not at all fixed), another rule change I'd like to see is limiting the number of bikes by one manufacturer on the grid to six. Having eight Ducatis doesn't help the racing, and just creates plugs for other teams to ride through. An ideal grid for me would be one factory and one satellite team for each manufacturer, even if that meant fewer bikes on the grid. 20 bikes over five manufacturers would be just fine with me...

 

[Lightcycle]

A veiled warning to MotoGP from its oldest sponsor - The Race

A remarkable article by Repsol takes aim at MotoGP over poor racing, aerodynamics, ride-height devices, the burden on riders and the calendar

the-race.com

Trying to figure out what that bad taste was in my mouth while reading this article.

Oh yeah... It tasted like sour grapes...

 

[Priller]

Yeesh. Unless you're a Quartararo fan, this was a horrible weekend all-round. Maybe Zarco and Miller are also happy, along with Diggia and Marini, but it's about as depressed a paddock as I've seen for pretty much everyone else. Honda finished out of the points, Suzuki finished out of the points, Yamaha did terribly for the other three riders (again), Ducati's title hope is essentially over, Aprilia simply couldn't match Fabio's pace, good tires or not, and KTM had yet another anonymous weekend with Binder's strong finish (in part thanks to all the DNFs) the only bright spot. Weirdly, the happiest post-race interview I saw was with Vinales, who was thrilled to be in position for a podium for the first time on an Aprilia (suggesting everything he and the team have been saying about being this close may actually be true).

The racing itself was also pretty dull, with even the crashes being weird. Hopefully Assen reignites something, or the season could be over at the half-way point again. Credit to Quartararo, though. He's built something with that Yamaha that nobody can match at these tracks. If he was more inconsistent, I might be more optimistic about a title fight, but he isn't, so I'm not. Maybe if Assen is a bit cooler, or it rains...

 

[Chaos]

I am not going to lie - I have an Italian background, so naturally cheer for Italian riders. It's been hard to see all the italian riders tripping over themelves.

Bagnaia is fast, but he has DNF'ed himself out of contention. The most recent one was the KO blow.

Morbidelli got into the points, he's having a season reminiscent of Marco Melandri on the Ducati when Stoner was winning on the same bike.

Not sure what's up with Bastianini - maybe the GP22 finally got better than the GP21?

Marini got a solid finish again. I think he has podium potential, but I haven't seen a race winning pace out of him yet like Bastianini.

I take nothing away from Quartararo. He belongs on top of the championship, and is dealing with the Ducati onslaught reminiscent of Rossi vs the Hondas in 2004.

 

[Lightcycle]

The racing itself was also pretty dull, with even the crashes being weird.

Yep, after the race, my wife turned to me and asked, "So when is the next WSBK race? I'm gonna start watching that with you instead."

That Bagnaia crash was strange. When I saw him sliding off the track, my first thought was, "Classic front end tuck", but then on the replay, I saw the rear come around and I thought, "So strange, when was the last time I ever saw that?" It was probably because he was off-line, no rubber off the racing line, or maybe even in the marbles a little bit, but it was like the traction control failed or something. I thought normally on those bikes, you're supposed to thwack the throttle WFO and let the electronics sort out the wheelspin.

 

[Chaos]

Yep, after the race, my wife turned to me and asked, "So when is the next WSBK race? I'm gonna start watching that with you instead."

That Bagnaia crash was strange. When I saw him sliding off the track, my first thought was, "Classic front end tuck", but then on the replay, I saw the rear come around and I thought, "So strange, when was the last time I ever saw that?" It was probably because he was off-line, no rubber off the racing line, or maybe even in the marbles a little bit, but it was like the traction control failed or something. I thought normally on those bikes, you're supposed to thwack the throttle WFO and let the electronics sort out the wheelspin.

Yeah, the product is not great this year. I don't know the solution but I keep hearing from pundits, it is at least one of:

1. rear shapeshifter
2. aero
3. tire construction

I don't know what will fix it, but not doing anything won't make the racing any better.

Re: Bagnaia, only thing I can think of was that he was slightly offline on the turn but on a serious angle, hit a very subtle dip in the ground and the rear lost grip.

 

[Priller]

I am not going to lie - I have an Italian background, so naturally cheer for Italian riders. It's been hard to see all the italian riders tripping over themelves.

Add Ducati as a whole to the mix...

Morbidelli got into the points, he's having a season reminiscent of Marco Melandri on the Ducati when Stoner was winning on the same bike.

Frankie has until the end of the year to save his Yamaha career. Without the satellite team, I could see them buying out his contract at this point. Unlike Vinales getting unconditional support from Aprilia despite his struggles, Jarvis has been blunt about expecting more from Morbido. I heard an interesting interview with a KTM crew chief who had a theory that Fabio's long torso let him get more weight directly over the front, which apparently makes a big difference with these Michelins for the ability to turn under braking (rather than weight behind the tire, which encourages a push). If true, Toprak may have a spot in MotoGP after all! Marini might also fit the bill, but he's tied to that VR46 team too strongly.

Not sure what's up with Bastianini - maybe the GP22 finally got better than the GP21?

If so, all the bikes have gotten better, including Diggia's, as he's been beating Bastianini lately. Just a rough patch with some bad luck, I think, though it may also be a product of Ducati heaping on the pressure by essentially saying the remaining factory seat is between Martin and Bestia: fight! What, Ducati mismanaging riders? Never!

Marini got a solid finish again. I think he has podium potential, but I haven't seen a race winning pace out of him yet like Bastianini.

I have to admit, I didn't see this from Marini. I assumed the family connections were all he had, but he's definitely improved a lot. Still, so have Bezzecchi and Diggia, both of whom are rookies. It's so hard to tell on this Ducati who has the talent to make the next step.

I take nothing away from Quartararo. He belongs on top of the championship, and is dealing with the Ducati onslaught reminiscent of Rossi vs the Hondas in 2004.

I can't decide if Quartararo is so talented that he's magicking a crap Yamaha to miracle wins, or if the Yamaha is actually a pretty solid bike as it usually is, and that while it doesn't win many top speed battles, it's a beautifully balanced machine in the right hands. With the latter, then, Yamaha also has two off-pace riders on the satellite squad (Dovi: past it, bless him, DBinder: never had it, got 'lucky') and a broken Frankie, who isn't the same since his time off.

Naturally the truth is likely somewhere in the middle, but to me what makes Quartararo special and likely to win many more championships is his consistency. He came out of the early part of the season leading the championship despite rarely looking in the hunt for a win, and limited damage while others (Pecco!) were not.

I was pulling for Fabio last year because he was my preseason pick and he seems like a decent kid. But he rides an awful lot like Lorenzo, who was the least interesting of the aliens, especially on track: Get to the front early, tick off a series of fast and consistent laps to build a 2+ second lead, manage lead as needed to preserve tires, turn similar lap time on last lap as first. It's supernaturally skillful and incredibly hard to do, but not much fun to watch. At least Quartararo isn't as irritating off-track (that one's for you, @Winales_2017 ! ), at least not yet. Depending how culpable he was for the hilariously bad CGI dancing devil and DJ celebration last year...

Yep, after the race, my wife turned to me and asked, "So when is the next WSBK race? I'm gonna start watching that with you instead."

I want to like WSBK so badly, but the gimping of bikes for winning rule just drives me nuts. I know it's only a few hundred rpm here and there, but I hate the idea of punishing teams for doing well just for the spectacle.

That Bagnaia crash was strange. When I saw him sliding off the track, my first thought was, "Classic front end tuck", but then on the replay, I saw the rear come around and I thought, "So strange, when was the last time I ever saw that?" It was probably because he was off-line, no rubber off the racing line, or maybe even in the marbles a little bit, but it was like the traction control failed or something. I thought normally on those bikes, you're supposed to thwack the throttle WFO and let the electronics sort out the wheelspin.

Bagnaia seemed equally puzzled immediately afterwards (love the arms raised to the bike as if he was asking it why) and in his post-race interview, but he did seem to be ever so slightly off line. He was at such a lean angle that it would be hard for any TC to save a lowside.

According to what I've read, the TC is there to save the riders from highsides if they screw up, but that kicking it in actually slows you down a lot. There was a Mat Oxley article with Petrucci from last year where he talked about how much rear brake he used (it was literally 70% of Le Mans) partly because he was trying so hard to stop the TC from kicking in. This would be the ideal level of intervention: skill still matters, but the TC saves crashes and injuries with a penalty on speed.

There have been some suggestions (from JLo, actually) that Honda has been monkeying with their system, which would explain why their bikes have been much more prone to highsides than the other manufacturers. It's possible Ducati are doing the same, and it bit them...

 

[Chaos]

Add Ducati as a whole to the mix...


Frankie has until the end of the year to save his Yamaha career. Without the satellite team, I could see them buying out his contract at this point. Unlike Vinales getting unconditional support from Aprilia despite his struggles, Jarvis has been blunt about expecting more from Morbido. I heard an interesting interview with a KTM crew chief who had a theory that Fabio's long torso let him get more weight directly over the front, which apparently makes a big difference with these Michelins for the ability to turn under braking (rather than weight behind the tire, which encourages a push). If true, Toprak may have a spot in MotoGP after all! Marini might also fit the bill, but he's tied to that VR46 team too strongly.

The rumour mill is speculating that Morbidelli is safe for next year. He is a VR46 rider and Yamaha do not want to scorch that earth... I think VR will accept if FM does not get renewed in 2024 (end of FM's contract), but cutting a contract early will raise VR's ire. While I don't think VR has the clout he used to, folks at Yamaha still appear to think he does - enough anyway.

If FM were managed by anyone else, FM would have been cut for next year.

 

[Priller]

The rumour mill is speculating that Morbidelli is safe for next year. He is a VR46 rider and Yamaha do not want to scorch that earth... I think VR will accept if FM does not get renewed in 2024 (end of FM's contract), but cutting a contract early will raise VR's ire. While I don't think VR has the clout he used to, folks at Yamaha still appear to think he does - enough anyway.

If FM were managed by anyone else, FM would have been cut for next year.

Historically, the Japanese factories do see out contracts as a matter of business practice, which is why it took such extreme behaviour from Vinales to force their hand last year. But I have to wonder if that's as fixed as it used to be, especially given the lack of a satellite team for next year. Nobody foresaw Suzuki pulling the plug, either, and they had contracts with a whole host of people and groups. Maybe it depends on how negotiations go for VR46 to move from Ducati to Yamaha in 2024, as has also been rumoured.

Or, Morbidelli himself could also want out (can't be much fun if just finishing in the points is considered a good race), though I'm not sure what his better options would be.

All I know is Lin Jarvis has been pretty blunt in his public assessment, which seems an odd choice if he's staying another year regardless. Riders rarely respond well to public criticism, just as factories rarely get better when riders complain publicly...

 

[Priller]

Oh, and if anyone is interested, Dorna is doing a fan survey about the current state of the series as well as future plans:

Global MotoGP™ Fan Survey 2022

I'm normally pretty skeptical of this stuff (had one recently from eBay asking about my 'relationship' to the corporation and whether I felt 'understood' by them that I quickly closed), but Dorna is clearly at a bit of a crossroads, both post-Rossi and being jealous of the F1 explosion as a product of their, uh, 'heightened' reality show over on Netflix. While I have mixed feelings about Dorna and Ezpeleta, there is always a risk they start worrying a bit too much about the sizzle and forget the steak. Either way...