It's as likely as anything at this point. Before last season, you (or almost anyone) would've said, "Mir really?" A bet on Binder is a bet on KTM as much as anything, which isn't the craziest idea considering how much they've improved year-on-year.
Considering the racing mostly happens in Europe, and Covid continues to make travel complicated, there's a good chance the Europe-based teams will do better with development in the off-season vs the Japanese competition. With Ducati unable to settle their rider situation, that may leave the door open for KTM, and Binder is their #1 for now...
Will depend highly on the MM situation imo. With so many different race winners last year it'll come down to the best consistency again.
Definitely depends on a healthy Marc. I think HRC was caught flat last year because they didn't have anyone else whose style involved riding outside the grip of the Michelins. They brought Pol Espargaro in this year who has a similar ragged style, so it seems they'll stick with that development path vs changing the bike to be more stable. It'll be very interesting to see if Pol can be consistent enough to stay healthy and rack up enough points if Marquez isn't his old self.
It's really unusual for both Honda and Yamaha to have off years at the same time, and it hasn't lasted longer than a season in anything approaching recent memory. This year will be fascinating to see if:
a) 2020 was a Covid blip
b) Covid has affected finances enough at Honda and Yamaha to stop them spending their way out of trouble as they're used to doing, but they'll be back to their old tricks once this mess is behind us
c) There really is a changing of power structure for manufacturers in the same way there has been for riders the past few years, with no long-term dominance from either Yamaha or Honda for the first time since King Kenny ruled...
It's also a weird year because a lot of the #1 factory riders seem to be picked for continuity rather than performance. Ducati relying on Miller? KTM on Binder? Yamaha on Vinales? There's nobody there who has shown consistent quality, and the hyped talents have all been put on slow Yamahas with crap development so it's hard to know how good they actually are. It's easy to find reasons why any of them will be awful, not so easy to pick one that will excel. No rider/bike package looks particularly promising.
With that, my 100% guaranteed to be wrong picks (assuming no healthy MM) are:
MotoGP: Quatararo (WAG is Yamaha finds something with a new development team and I think he has more talent than Vinales)
Dark horse: Oliviera (I think he has more potential than Binder)
Dark horse Pt 2: Pol Espargaro (HRC finds ways to keep him upright)
Moto2: roll the dice as always
WSBK: gotta be Rea until it isn't
(not so) Dark Horse: Scott Redding (only because I like him)
CSBK: considering it doesn't exist out west, no idea because I haven't followed. Szoke like Rea?
