I am still curious about the effect that can be reasonably attributed to 172 tho. Which is why I asked for the BC stats because I think it helps control for other factors if the experience is replicated.
I guess I am having some difficulty connecting your assertion that highway speeds have generally slowed to 172 because 172 doesn't have an effect on people going 140.
Remember, you asked for it. ;-)
Here are stats followed by media releases for the more recent periods for which published reports are not available.
May 2006 CC amended by Bill C19 to include "racing" as an aggravating factor to DD, tougher penalties.
http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliam...age=E&ls=c19&source=library_prb&Parl=39&Ses=1
Sept 2007 Ontario's HTA172 takes effect
May 2008 Nova Scotia's Law identical to HTA172 takes effect
Sept 2010 BC's HTA172-like law takes effect
Ontario/NS/BC Fatalities "fatalities per billion km driven"/Raw fatalities
Year Ont NS BC
--------------
2010 ?/? ?/69 ?/? BC's "HTA172" took effect Sept 2010
2009 4.2/? 7.2/72 10.5/?
2008 4.6/631 8.6/83 9.9/? Nova Scotia's "HTA172" took effect May 2008
2007 5.5/765 9.3/99 11.6/417 Ontario HTA172 took effect Sept 2007 and Criminal Code Racing amendment to Dangerous Driving took effect mid 2007
2006 5.3/769 8.4/86 12.9/409
2005 5.5/766 7.1/72 13.9/459
2004 6.6/799 9.4/90 12.4/444
2003 6.0/831 6.7/70 12.9/456
2002 7.1/872 ?/88 ?/453
2001 6.0/845 ?/80
2000 6.0/849 ?/87
Transport Canada Road Safety reports
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/roadsafety/tp-tp3322-2009-1173.htm#t4
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/roadsafety/tp-tp3322-2008-1144.htm
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/roadsafety/tp-tp3322-2007-1039.htm
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/roadsafety/tp-tp3322-2006-page5-588.htm
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/roadsafety/tp-tp3322-2005-page5-653.htm
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/roadsafety/tp-tp3322-2004-page5-716.htm
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/roadsafety/tp-tp3322-2003-page5-635.htm
Ontario annual ORSAR Road Safety reports lag TC reports by about a year as Ontario finalizes and confirmed fatality and travel distance data. Ontario data in Transport Canada reports are noted as "preliminary and differ from Ontario ORSAR report data. Trends remain intact regardless.
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar08/overview.shtml
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar07/overview.shtml
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar06/chp1_06.shtml
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar05/chp1_05.shtml
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar04/chp1_04.shtml
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar03/chp1_03.shtml
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar02/chp1_02.shtml
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar01/chp1_01.shtml
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar00/chp1_00.shtml
Nova Scotia Raw fatality numbers
2010 69
2009 72
2008 83 Nova Scotia's "HTA172" took effect May 2008
2007 99 Criminal Code Racing amendment to Dangerous Driving took effect mid 2007
2006 86
2005 72
2004 90
2003 70
2002 88
2001 80
2000 87
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/FMWK2010.pdf
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/FMWK2009.pdf
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/FMWK2008.pdf
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/FMWK2007.pdf
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/CCMTA_2006.pdf
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/CCMTA_2005.pdf
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/CCMTA_2004.pdf
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/CCMTA_2003.pdf
http://www.gov.ns.ca/tran/publications/collisionstats/2002_Collision_Statistics.pdf
British Columbia's raw fatality numbers
2010 BC's "HTA172" took effect Sept 2010
2009
2008
2007 417
2006 409 Criminal Code Racing amendment to Dangerous Driving took effect mid 2007
2005 459
2004 444
2003 456
2002 453
2001 398
2000 404
The above lists are from official government publications. Ontario's ORSAR for 2009 and 2010 are not yet out, nor are ICBC's 2008-2010 reports.
The following are culled from various media releases.
British Columbia after their tougher law
The 2010 implementation of their extreme driving law also included tougher alcohol restrictions similar to Ontario's recent .05 BAC laws. The following quote covers the first 9 months after the tough law went into effect, abd notes a huge drop in fatalities whether related to impairment or otherwise. Their initial drop was as dramatic as that which Ontario saw in the first year of HTA172 implementation. BC still has a lot of room in which to improve their fatality rates.
Between October, 2010 and June, 2011 a total of 209 traffic fatalities occurred on British Columbia roadways, 36 of these were determined to be alcohol related. This is down from a high of 323 fatalities, 97 of which were alcohol related, that occurred over the same period in 2005-06.
http://bc.rcmp.ca/ViewPage.action?siteNodeId=50&languageId=1&contentId=20566
Another quote, specific to the alcohol provision part of the tougher law which mirror Ontario's .05 limit:
Since the introduction of the Immediate Roadside Prohibitions (IRP) on September 20, 2010, there have been significant decreases in alcohol-related fatalities. There were 30 alcohol-related fatalities from October 2010 to April 2011. This is a 50 per cent decrease in the number of alcohol-related fatalities for the same seven month time period for the previous five years (61 fatalities).
http://www.pssg.gov.bc.ca/osmv/shareddocs/alcohol-related-fatalities-oct-apr.pdf
Ontario
Final ORSAR reports are not yet in for 2009, but some media releases are available showing that the targets of HTA172 continue to fall.
On September 30, 2007, Ontario implemented a new program to reduce street racing, stunt driving and extreme speeding. The OPP has indicated that there was an 11.1 per cent decrease in speed-related traffic fatalities on OPP patrolled highways in 2010, compared to the year before. This is on top of a 27.7 per cent decrease in speed-related traffic fatalities on OPP patrolled highways in 2009 compared to 2008, and a 29.4 per cent decrease in 2008, compared to 2007, the year the legislation came into effect.
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/about/quickfacts.shtml
The continued rate of fall in "speed-related" fatalities suggests that the law and enforcement is continuing to have an effect even of the marginal returns are starting to diminish. Maybe more people have finally internalized the message.
The following bits pertain only to OPP-patrolled roads. The OPP reported 451 fatalities on their roads in 2007, falling to 322 in 2008 and falling some more to 310 in 2009. This was followed by a slight rise in fatalities in the the Jan to July period of 2010 (163 total, 9 more as compared to same period in 2009, attributable mainly to a 70% (46) spike in JUly 2010 traffic fatalities vs July 2009's 28 fatalities. I recall reading that by end of year, total 2010 fatalities on OPP roads had finished with a slight improvment the 2009 numbers, but I haven't been able to locate the article.
For this year though, the OPP reports a reduction in year-over-year fatalities to end of July. The downward trend continues, despite Ontario's 9 million plus licensed drivers increasing at the rate of 1 or 2% each year, and despite ever increasing numbers of vehicles on our roads.
As of July 31, 157 people have died in motor vehicle collisions in 2011 compare to 173 in the same period for 2010, a decrease of 9.2 percent.
http://www.opp.ca/ecms/index.php?id=405&nid=650
In any case, you asked the effect of HTA172? Fatalities plummeted in the year folllowing implementation and have continued to drop since despite promises of serious rebound by some posters here.
When Nova Scotia implemented their own almost exact carbon copy of HTA172 only with slightly higher fines, their fatality numbers dropped.
When BC did the same only with a 40 kmph definition of excess speeding, their fatality rates dropped substantially in the first 9 months of enforcement.
None of the drops in fatality rates following toughened legislation appear to be a continuation of any prior existing trend line's slope.