I thought the TSB released their preliminary report ages ago?
I watched this video from an airline pilot that seems fairly balanced and clear about the likely factors:
Coles notes are:
- due to heavy snow, the runway was plowed more narrowly than typical (making visual cues less reliable because you look higher than you are)
- the wind was high and super gusty with big changes in wind speed and direction
- the approach speed was lower than it needed to be but still within SOP
- a gust made the IAS spike which triggered the FO to cut the throttles back to idle
- when closer to the ground, the gust stopped and wind speed dropped significantly causing IAS to drop equivalently
- this caused a big increase in descent rate with an uncontrolled sink
- immediately before ground contact, a possible second gust rolled the plane enough to the right that only the right landing gear made contact
- the vertical speed was high enough to collapse the single gear which then caused the right wing to drag because of the roll
- the right wing tore off and spilled jet fuel which subsequently ignited
- the lift from the left wing then caused the aircraft to roll fully over
- There is no initial evidence about the FO correcting for the drop in IAS or the increase in sink rate by either adding throttle in an attempt to go around or by adjusting pitch to trade airpseed for descent rate
The Captain had super low hours (especially considering his age and length of flying career), and may have been primarily a simulator instructor, while the FO had very low hours that are only allowed if a pilot is a graduate of a university course. It seems the airline made the biggest error in allowing two pilots with so few collective hours (especially recent hours) to fly together, and this was compounded by extremely difficult flying conditions.
(The FO was a woman, but anyone who claims this is a factor is, quite frankly, an idiot. No special dispensation had been made because of her gender, and there are literally thousands of female pilots out there with statistically identical flying records as men. A childhood friend is a female pilot with Air Canada and has been flying for 25+ years with an exemplary record.)