Coronavirus

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Corona mortality rate is something like 2%. That is probably heavily skewed by those with weak immune systems. I'm not sure what normal flu mortality is in the general population (it will also be skewed by those with weak immune systems). Ebola mortality rate is something like 50-90%. That would scare the crap out of me if I caught it.

I am with BK, with a few exceptions, I think this is being handled quite well to slow the spread. No health care system in the world could deal with the number of simultaneous cases if it was allowed to take off.

I am interested in the effectiveness vs PR aspect of some of the quarantines though. For instance, people are sequestered in their rooms on a cruise ship for two weeks (two weeks after the last case?). For those with inside cabins, you are breathing recirculated, unfiltered air for two weeks to minimize your chance to catch an air-borne virus? How is food being prepared? Is a mask and handwashing sufficient if one of the kitchen staff is infected?
 
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An old friend was under self quarantine. He was on a flight with someone suspected of having the disease, but wasn't sitting close enough for a compelled quarantine.
 
No group rides for the next couple of weeks.

I’m also dressing up like Gene Simmons from KISS...seems to be keeping people away

Seriously though, I do get concerned when I see the number of new infections and deaths rising rapidly beyond the SARS numbers...even if the mortality rate is lower.


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I understand the big fear is Africa
if this bug makes it there it will kill a lot of people
lots of migrant workers in the big cities

Lagos is a good example
huge expat workforce in the oil industry
metro area of 16 million
woefully poor sanitation and health care

and the natural distrust of WHO and foreiners is a huge problem
I was in west Africa at the start of the last ebola epidemic

after a few deaths the WHO docs showed up
sick people were taken away from families and never came back
families will keep sick ones in the house because of this
the distrust wipes out whole families/villages
 
I wish people would stop quoting the nonsense that the flu kills more people every year. We don’t quarantine cities, quarantine cruise ships , close borders and stop flights to a country over the flu. And we know the Chinese are liars about everything so this is much worse than they are letting on .
 
F3800RC said:
I wish people would stop quoting the nonsense that the flu kills more people every year. We don’t quarantine cities, quarantine cruise ships , close borders and stop flights to a country over the flu. And we know the Chinese are liars about everything so this is much worse than they are letting on .
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Flu would kill less people if we did all those things though!

The difference is this:

Flu has a (somewhat effective) vaccine, the current coronavirus subtype does not currently have one.
The current coronavirus has already shown a few of the worrying signs of a new virus outbreak in that it's already jumped species once, is contagious via person-person and is likely contagious before symptoms appear. There's some complex statistics that also look at how many people one person with the virus can infect and that number is higher than one it seems.

Right now I think there's a lot of hysteria being whipped up by the media but some things are curious:

1. The 1000 bed hospital in Wuhan province that was built in 10 days
2. The Chinese whistleblower doctor that died of the coronavirus strain and he looked young/healthy and would have known about sanitation and hygienic practices.
3. Isolating cities the size of London (UK) isn't normal.

The good news is that the western media, despite being hysterical at times, isn't likely to hide things the way a communist controlled country is, and right now the coronavirus strain doesn't seem to be a big risk unless you're already in an at-risk category.
 
Hey noobie48, where are you going to get that rice from? :unsure:
The meek shall inherit the earth, just hopefully not in my lifetime.
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I was talking with someone last night he mentioned a client of his (client works in medical biology), said this was accidentally released from a military facility in China. As the strain is or seems to strong. I dunno I've also heard it was stolen from a lab in Canada. Those seem very much like conspiracy theories. But the theory of it mutating from animals and eating said animals kinda seems plasuable. We live in a age of misinformation. Hard to know what to believe.

As for the hospital, apparently it was under construction before the outbreak and they just completed it in 10 days. Again hard to verify.

Either way this is alarming around 600 people have died in China alone.

I was thinking of making some travel plans in March, nowhere near Asia, but I am interested if this situation gets better first.
 
sburns said:
I was talking with someone last night he mentioned a client of his (client works in medical biology), said this was accidentally released from a military facility in China. As the strain is or seems to strong. I dunno I've also heard it was stolen from a lab in Canada. Those seem very much like conspiracy theories. But the theory of it mutating from animals and eating said animals kinda seems plasuable. We live in a age of misinformation. Hard to know what to believe.

As for the hospital, apparently it was under construction before the outbreak and they just completed it in 10 days. Again hard to verify.

Either way this is alarming around 600 people have died in China alone.

I was thinking of making some travel plans in March, nowhere near Asia, but I am interested if this situation gets better first.
Click to expand...

I already have plans. Not worried.
 
F3800RC said:
I wish people would stop quoting the nonsense that the flu kills more people every year. We don’t quarantine cities, quarantine cruise ships , close borders and stop flights to a country over the flu. And we know the Chinese are liars about everything so this is much worse than they are letting on .
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Yeah, flu kills more because way more are infected. Actually, almost every cause has more than 600 deaths per year. That crap is just something for the talking heads to blab about.

The quarantined cruise ship(s?) is actually a blessing in disguise. That gives you a decent sized confined population outside of potential chinese news manipulation to document the spread and mortality rate. The people that booked balconies are getting their moneys worth now. The poor people on the inside cabins won't see sun for at least two weeks (and I still think anything less than ~two weeks after the last identified case was removed from the ship makes a hell of a lot more sense).
 
3 weeks from now I'll be on a cruise. I'm not concerned in the least. I'm far more worried about getting noro on a ship than anything else, but thats easy to avoid by simply not being a pig, washing your hands, and keeping them out of your mouth.

Globably, there's 200,000 deaths annually from Noro, nearly 2 million from Tuberculosis (yep, still to this day even though there's a vaccine), 60K or so every year from the flu (Yep, also a vaccine that's generally more effective than not, and can and does generally lessen symptoms for those who may still get it regardless), etc etc etc.

But you don't hear about any of those because that's all normalized now and the media doesn't care much. But some new sickness with a catchy name, OMG EVERYONE PANIC!
 
Kill rate of 2%, mostly elderly and immuno compromised, weaker than a flu.

Just wash your hands and don't lick strangers.

Or we can avoid chinese businesses and chinese-looking people like the ignant cows that we are.
 
N234 said:
Kill rate of 2%, mostly elderly and immuno compromised, weaker than a flu.

Just wash your hands and don't lick strangers.

Or we can avoid chinese businesses and chinese-looking people like the ignant cows that we are.
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its really not ignorant. Beyond the potential that they ,one of their friends or relatives was in China for the new year just take a look at restaurants that are shut down or fines for health code violations and dirty conditions with food and the kitchens ...mostly Chinese. Recognizing the short coming of a culture isnt racist no matter how much you scream it at people .
 
PrivatePilot said:
3 weeks from now I'll be on a cruise. I'm not concerned in the least. I'm far more worried about getting noro on a ship than anything else, but thats easy to avoid by simply not being a pig, washing your hands, and keeping them out of your mouth.

Globably, there's 200,000 deaths annually from Noro, nearly 2 million from Tuberculosis (yep, still to this day even though there's a vaccine), 60K or so every year from the flu (Yep, also a vaccine that's generally more effective than not, and can and does generally lessen symptoms for those who may still get it regardless), etc etc etc.

But you don't hear about any of those because that's all normalized now and the media doesn't care much. But some new sickness with a catchy name, OMG EVERYONE PANIC!
Click to expand...

you are not safe not being a pig and washing your hands, many cruise ship diseases are airborne and in the vent systems such as norovirus and legionnaires disease. Cruise ships are a floating dirty bacteria palace, they never go out of service to get properly cleaned .

www.cruiselawnews.com

Airborne Norovirus - What Now Cruise Lines?

Earlier this month, we reported that researchers in Canada concluded that norovirus can spread by air, according to a publication in the highly respected
www.cruiselawnews.com www.cruiselawnews.com
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