Running from police.

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Funny... :)

All I was trying to say was that comments about the outcome of chases made by people who really have no idea about chases are a tad comical. Kind of like watching Sheriff John make his proclamations...

I'll leave the buggery of farmyard animals to those in the know... :)

jc100 said:
With that rationale I would say you are unable to pass judgement on a murder case, robbery or buggery of a farmyard animal unless.........
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ddusseld said:
Funny... :)

All I was trying to say was that comments about the outcome of chases made by people who really have no idea about chases are a tad comical. Kind of like watching Sheriff John make his proclamations...

I'll leave the buggery of farmyard animals to those in the know... :)
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I don't know that's essentially true....

Doesn't take a genius to work out that if you commit a crime more than once your chances of a screw up are increased each time and the odds are in the favour that one day, you'll end up with an "unfavourable outcome". No need to have run from the law to make that comment, it's simple probability at work...that...and the mere fact that there's plenty of people who thought they might get away with whatever they did now residing at Her Majesty's Pleasure.
 
jc100 said:
I don't know that's essentially true....

Doesn't take a genius to work out that if you commit a crime more than once your chances of a screw up are increased each time and the odds are in the favour that one day, you'll end up with an "unfavourable outcome". No need to have run from the law to make that comment, it's simple probability at work...that...and the mere fact that there's plenty of people who thought they might get away with whatever they did now residing at Her Majesty's Pleasure.
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It also doesn't take a genius to figure out that of the ones who run, far more get away than get caught. I've been thanked by an officer for not running, when he pulled me over, and I'm far from the only person who has received that thank-you.
 
Rob MacLennan said:
It also doesn't take a genius to figure out that of the ones who run, far more get away than get caught. I've been thanked by an officer for not running, when he pulled me over, and I'm far from the only person who has received that thank-you.
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That's like calling heads on a coin toss....you might get heads on the first toss, maybe even on the second....the more you throw that coin the more likely tails is coming your way.

Ok, that's just pure chance, but even with adding something to your favour unless you can control every single variable the odds are that the more you do something, the more likely you are to get caught.

This is an infallible truth. Some people may have run many many times, but the more they do it, the more likely it is that one day it's not going to work out.
 
Rob MacLennan said:
To imply that the odds are 50/50 is grossly disingenuous.
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"Ok, that's just pure chance, but even with adding something to your favour unless you can control every single variable the odds are that the more you do something, the more likely you are to get caught."
 
Rossi86 said:
Exactly! The odds of having tails even after having tails 1 million times, are still 50 Heads, 50 Tails. Not more or less likely, but just as likely.
And looking at how one becomes better with more practice, the chances of getting caught actually become even lower! A rookie runner is more likely to get caught than someone who's been doing it repeatedly for years. I've met people who would run every time they took their bike out and they've been doing this for 10+ years...
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What are the odds of getting 999 heads calls and 1 tails call in 1000 coin tosses?
 
Rob MacLennan said:
It also doesn't take a genius to figure out that of the ones who run, far more get away than get caught. I've been thanked by an officer for not running, when he pulled me over, and I'm far from the only person who has received that thank-you.
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I too have been thanked roadside for pulling over, about 9 yrs ago now, before the cop even had time to do a u-turn and take chase.
I was more than double the limit, going around a curve, when the officer came around the curve towards me, in the opposite lane.......on a deserted 2 lane highway up north 8 am on a sunday. He asked for paperwork, asked what my hurry was, and upon hearing my explanation, he said he'd keep it short so I could get on my way (with just a warning and no ticket). He thanked me for pulling over, saying that he wished he could run over all the crotch rocket riders who would run from him. I assumed this meant more often than not, he never got them.
 
For those of you that will never pull over whats your plan to get away?
 
jc100 said:
What are the odds of getting 999 heads calls and 1 tails call in 1000 coin tosses?
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In that order? 1 in 2^1000. But the odds of getting 500 heads then 500 tails are exactly the same. So are the odds of getting 6 heads, 18 tails, 4 heads, 596 tails, then 376 heads.
 
You've already showed math is not your strongest point, do you really want to go down this road
 
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I knew a guy who made it a hobby to run from the cops, he never got caught... did it dozens of times. He saved my butt once too by taking off after we got pulled over. The cop ran back to his car and took off after him :lol: ... I meandered outta there slowly :)
 
I knew a guy who ran from the cops on a bike. And died. The odds did not seem too work out to well for him.

No matter how good the odds are of getting away, if you're the one who does get caught or dies, you've lost a lot bigger than if you had just stopped.
 
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Rossi86 said:
You've already showed math is not your strongest point, do you really want to go down this road with me, an Hon. B.Sc. graduate?

The answer is simple:
- 999 heads: (1/2)^999
- 1 tail: (1/2)^1

"and" denoting both events happening simultaneously, therefore (1/2)^999 x (1/2)^1 = (1/2)^1000, there's your answer!
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Excellent...now you're getting it...now...if the odds of getting away from the police are say 95% and you run only once....

Ok...now if you run 100 times....

Take these as sets not individual events to represent a pattern of behaviour or career. Not too hard is it.

The point isn't hard to comprehend, ask any of the career criminals in jail, they got caught after a while playing the odds of not getting caught.

PS The guy that put my bathroom in had a BSc Hons. Collect enough ringpulls in this country and you can get one ;)
 
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